Is Our National Pastime... Past its Time?

An era long gone.By Michael Chung, PHD: Kansas City baseball is looking up. The Royals, though not in contention, have the experts predicting future success waiting for the blossoming of their young talent. But there is a story that no one is really talking about that could sour the Royals future.

The major sports stories regarding the big three sports — MLB, NFL, NBA — have been the NFL and NBA lockouts. The NFL lockout was over 100 days and the NBA lockout has become big news. Many are predicting the upcoming NBA season will not even happen.

But there is another major story that sports fans are not aware of and if it becomes news, will certainly hurt baseball. Already, MLB has been struggling for ratings. All around the world, the NBA and NFL seem to be gaining while the popularity of the MLB is waning.

On Dec. 11, 2011, the MLB collective bargaining agreement will end. It is big news, but obviously not one that concerns the media. Survey sports fans about the collective bargaining agreements, the majority will be familiar with the NFL and NBA’s situation. Few, if any, will be aware that the MLB CBA will end soon. MLB would be wise to make this a non-issue and not get any negative media attention. MLB has already lost significant interest in America and can ill afford any more negativity. This year alone, NFL preseason games have close to doubled the viewers that watched last year’s MLB playoffs.

Last year’s playoffs and World Series were woeful in comparison to NFL preseason. Game three, in which the Texas Rangers won 4-2 over the San Francisco Giants drew a 6.7 TV rating (percentage of TV homes), the second-lowest ever for a World Series game. The only World Series telecast to suffer a lower rating was game three of the 2008 series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. That game was delayed 90 minutes by rain and didn't get going until after 10 p.m ET. On the other hand, even though the NFL’s preseason comes on the heels of a CBA dispute, the average NFL exhibition ratings have been 4.5, not too far off.

Last year, NBC's Saints-Steelers regular season game drew an 11.8 rating vs. a 10.4 rating for Fox's coverage of the Giants' Game 4 victory.

The Colts-Texans regular season game narrowly lost to the World Series. But the NFL game was on cable, which applies to 80% of the households. Not all cable packages include ESPN. Many have a basic cable with no ESPN. Had the Colts and Texans been broadcasted on national TV, there would have been a significant increase.

ESPN's broadcast of the Tennessee Titans' 30-3 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars drew a rating of 7.2, while TBS' broadcast of the Texas Rangers' game three win against the New York Yankees drew a 6.5 rating.

It was the succeeding night that NFL beat baseball playoffs head-to-head, with the Colts-Redskins game drawing more than twice the ratings the Giants-Phillies game received on Sunday night.

But the Titans-Jaguars' ratings win is notable because it had two teams from smaller TV markets. The baseball game, which was only a two-run game going into the ninth inning, featured the league's leading team (Yankees) from the nation’s principal TV market.

We can see from this year and last that the NFL is overwhelmingly more popular than MLB and if MLB is not careful, could slip even further down the sports food chain.

Baseball is in danger of being like the Swiss watchmakers of old. Up until the 1970’s, the Swiss watchmakers dominated the market. When quartz technology first came on the scene, the Swiss were not concerned and continued to do business as usual. As Asia and American watch industries embraced this quartz technology, Switzerland continued to ignore it.

What ensued was a near collapse of the Swiss watch making economy. What was once known as the best watches in the world now experienced insolvency at a record pace. If baseball is not careful, they too will fall the same fate as the once great watch makers of Switzerland.

The Royals have been proclaimed one of the franchises with the best young talent. In time, the Royals should return to contenders once these players mature. But when KC is ready to win, will baseball be ready to embrace them? Will there even be baseball at the MLB level?

With clear ratings decline and NFL growth, baseball needs to be wary and not make the same mistake as the Swiss watch makers. The first thing Bud Selig should do this off-season is to make the labor agreement a non-issue and a non-story. With sports fans soured from the recent NFL labor dispute and a vicious NBA labor dispute pending, MLB can ill afford any negative publicity that will cause their shrinking fan base to lose even more interest. MLB is definitely past its prime. If there is a bitter labor dispute, baseball as America’s past time could be past its time for good.

By Martin Manley on September 9, 2011 - 12:51am
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Baseball not Fitting the pace of this era

Submitted by gbewing on September 9, 2011 - 11:44am.

We live currently in a ridiculous era where everything is about speed and multi tasking. Email is too slow we need instant communication via Tweet etc. Of all sports baseball fits least well, a reflective game that is built on methodical pitch by pitch progression with sporadic energized moments. 3 1/2 hours of devoted watching is not in the template of the current consumer mindset. The other defining characteristic of our times is unmitigated greed. People historically (Roman Empire anyone) have used sports as their escape from the real world burdens. Between greed (make a buck every second we can- commercials are what slows games down more than players, over expansion, agents, dumb rules playoff in November)instant gratification -the speed of life thing, demanding results less plot evolution, and separation from reality to fantasy. We know too damn much about people and there's no room left to just watch the play in isolation. Sports has become too much like work- it's not an escape it's work. I think the game is fine (except those things modern Seligball has done to make $$ and hurt the game itself) but they realistically need to look at what is turning people off. It's a game demographically and gene-rationally challenged but it will survive this period similar to the NBA pre Bird/Magic. It will cycle back and maybe just maybe the game can get better by getting smaller. NFL is facing some challenging issues themselves, the games too long, player injuries a big issue as they get bigger faster stronger through modern medicine, greed+, and fans finding TV a better alternative to in stadium viewing. The rising threat is soccer and potentially basketball if they can ever get their economics in order. Martin check out Sporting average game attendance vs Royals and were there games they played on same night? My quick suggestion fixes 1. Reduce games per season between 140-154 2. Limit commercials between ings- make up ad revenue in more creative ways. Fewer commercials make a better product and more people watch 3. Get a legitimate commissioner who is neutral 4. Reduce number of teams 5. Explore creative rules on rosters no more 13 pitcher- 5 an ing Larussa ball - 10 pitchers 15 position players no DH or 11 pitchers 14 position players with DH

Inequity is ruining the game

Submitted by RogerFeeley on September 9, 2011 - 9:00am.

I agree with the poster that said that the large markets are buying the game. The Royals stink, the Royals will always stink and if they stop stinking, the large market teams will buy the best players and they will go back to stinking.

Until there is revenue sharing like the NFL has, MLB will lack the essential ingredient of hope. There is no hope in the small markets. Without hope, the small markets will continue to struggle and the large markets won't have worthy opponents to play. Without hope, MLB will continue to wither and contract to a half dozen large market teams and then finally die.

That said, I understand that minor league ball is doing fine. It might suffer too if there is no major leage to keep the players hungry. Darn, there's that hope thing again.

Maybe baseball is failing BECAUSE of their CBA

Submitted by mackthefinger on September 9, 2011 - 8:11am.

I have to completely disagree with you. Baseball is failing because it is relevant in fewer and fewer markets. This is a direct result of the collective bargaining agreement that has allowed New York and Boston to buy the league. Getting the CBA right is the best chance baseball has to become relevant in all of America rather than continue on its path to becoming a regional niche sport, and as such it should not be taken lightly and it should not be simply passed through with the primary concern being to avoid a prolonged dispute. Frankly, with the NFL and the NBA already having lock-outs, now is probably the best time to make such a stand as the public has already grown accustomed to labor disagreements so the fallout should be far less than it was during 1994. A big reason why the NFL succeeds is that it is built on a level of parity that helps to keep fans in every market included, and MLB would be wise to follow in this highly successful model.

Shot Clock/Play Clock

Submitted by Dannar on September 9, 2011 - 6:50am.

This is absolutely the most necessary thing baseball needs.

The Shot Clock revolutionized Basketball.

The play clock keeps things moving in football.

A play clock/pitch clock/shot clock will keep things moving in baseball.

The pitch clock starts when a batter steps into the box for the first time and lasts 12 seconds. The pitcher has 12 seconds to throw his pitch. The batter can step out of the box, he can do whatever he wants, but as soon as that pitch clock starts, the pitcher gets to throw, indeed HAS to throw, or he gets a delay of game violation and the batter gets a ball.

Each pitcher gets one timeout per inning, each catcher gets one timeout per inning. Each team (coaches) gets one timeout per inning. Maximum of 9 total timeouts in a game.

This will fix baseball more than anything else.

...

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 9, 2011 - 9:40am.

I would challenge you to watch an MLB game and see how long it takes for the pitcher to come to the plate. I'd bet 9 times out of 10, 12 seconds would be more than what they take. That's pure guesswork, and next time I watch a game, I'll do the same.

I would limit the amount of time between innings and between pitching changes and maybe have a cap on extra innings if I really wanted the games to be shorter. Like I said on an earlier post, average game time is only 2 hours and 45 minutes. That's less than a football game. And yes, I understand that football is once a week and baseball is every day, but that's a completely different subject which I think deserves some tweaking when talking about a new CBA.
JT

Drug Testing

Submitted by gbewing on September 9, 2011 - 11:51am.

JT, you realize steroids is way bigger in NFL than MLB and it was a huge problem in MLB. These huge lineman didn't get there from momma's cooking. The owners weer equally invested in promoting steroid use among players. If we are talking about recreational drugs. I would wage the usage in MLB is similar to rest of society.

...

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 9, 2011 - 12:21pm.

I'm lost...where did we start talking about steroids? Pretty sure I haven't said anything about those...
JT

You didn't KU Jayhawk did below

Submitted by gbewing on September 9, 2011 - 12:28pm.

my reply came up here instead

It's not just a pitching problem

Submitted by Dannar on September 9, 2011 - 10:13am.

And to adjust for that, give the batters 6 seconds between pitches to get back in the box, or it's a strike.

Overarchingly: Technology needs to implemented desparately into the game. It would make it far more interesting to watch.

Dannar:

Submitted by Martin Manley on September 10, 2011 - 1:51am.

I like the concept of timing things, but I also agree that it has to be done in the context of technology. Otherwise, it would be a nightmare.

I actually don't think the biggest delay is the pitcher. I think it is the batter more so. But, a clock on both of them would be ideal. And, if balls and strikes were called by the computer, it would also speed the whole thing up.

Martin

...

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 9, 2011 - 10:53am.

Would it be more interesting though?

I know there aren't a lot of people that agree with me, but I enjoy the umpires being wrong a lot of the time. It forces the batter to adjust to the umpire's strike zone and that's when you can really tell who is a truly talented baseball player. When a ball goes over the outfield wall, but not over the fence and the umpires discuss for 5 minutes and still get the call wrong, it gets fans into the game more. Think about it this way: If everything were cut and dried (balls, strikes, almost fair balls down the line, home runs, safe/out calls at bases) what would be enjoyable about watching the game? Everything would be monotonous, for instance, what would happen to ejections of managers? You can't come out and yell at a computer!
JT

I find that

Submitted by Dannar on September 9, 2011 - 3:34pm.

To be terribly boring (all the histrionics of a manager yelling at an umpire, etc...) I want to watch pitchers pitch, hitters hit. Baserunners run. I think a far more accurate test of a hitters ability is to learn his strikezone and defend it against a pitcher, and it's far more entertaining to watch than having some umpire call something that's a foot wide a "strike"

Where did MLB go wrong?

Submitted by KUJayhawk70 on September 9, 2011 - 4:14am.

As a life-long MLB fan (ever since the Philadelphia Athletics moved to KC!), my analysis is that MLB was ruined when the players won the strike. It not only resulted in exorbitant salaries, but also no drug testing. The consequence is a ruinied sport, whose once near-sacred record book is now worthless. I consider it a tragedy.

My ,02 €

This is coming from a non-baseball fan...

Submitted by Eride on September 9, 2011 - 2:59am.

So now that my bias has been disclosed, let me tell you why I am not a baseball fan and what MLB could do that would help make me a baseball fan.

There are two major issues I have when I try to enjoy MLB games.

1. The incredible length of many of the games. This isn't an issue just because they are long, it is an issue because there is so much dead time. I will elaborate on this if proded but I think even the baseball fans on this blog will be able to pick out what I mean by "dead time". It is rediculous. I don't want to sit there and watch a sport where 2-3 minutes pass inbetween pitches! I don't want to sit there and watch a several minute discussion on the mound! I realize that those long times don't happen every pitch and all the time but they happen enough during almost every game (and when certain teams play it almost approaches every pitch and *all* the time...) that it makes it incredibly hard to stay engrossed in the product. No sport that embrasses games that last 4+ hours is going to continue to be successful, it just is *NOT* going to happen.

2. The rediculous inequity in MLB between the large market teams and everyone else. When you have 3 teams spending vastly more money on salary then any other team and the system is set up with no system to regulate it the inequity is going to be readily apparent. I think one of the most amusing moment of my life was reading a comment from the Yankees GM complaining about the amount of money the Royals (and a couple of other teams) have been spending on bonuses for signing draft picks. I guess spending several times more then some teams is perfectly acceptable and *good* for the league but a team giving (in comparison) small change away to some draft picks in a futile attempt to keep themselves competitive is some how destabilizing really tells you everything you need to know about how ruined the system is in MLB.

My $0.02... MLB needs a good, long contract dispute. It needs to result in a hard salary cap and revenue sharing system. The league also needs to address the ways teams delay and lengthen games as well as certain mechanisms of the game that lead to long periods of inaction. If that doesn't happen, the slide to mediocraty will continue.

Eride:

Submitted by Martin Manley on September 10, 2011 - 2:05am.

It's all perception. I don't think it is boring to watch cars go around in circles at a NASCAR race. Someone else does.

I DO think it is boring to watch a 1-1 soccer game. Someone else doesn't.

But, there one thing that could make all the difference in the world if baseball could deliver on it.

Do you realize that in an NFL game, there is roughly a total of 15 minutes of action? That's 15 minutes out of 3+ hours. You can get that number simply by taking the total # of plays and multiplying it times 6 seconds (average play length).

Yet... almost no sports fan considers NFL games to be boring. Why?

The reason in simple... because they show the previous play 2-4 times between plays. Our perception is that the pace of the game never stops. That's why I can't stand going to a live game unless they are as liberal with instant replay and the broadcast.

But, what can baseball do between pitches? Obviously, if there was something to replay, they will - specifically a hit. Or, if someone in the stands made a play on a foul ball. But, as a rule, their hands are tied, so they try to entertain us with facts, stats, data, quizzes, trivia - even interviews.

Either they need to figure out how to make it move, move, move, move - no interruptions except inning breaks or pitching changes... or else they need to come up with a brilliant way to entertain us between pitches - something that has never been conceived.

It's too bad. I love baseball and I'm very interested in what Ryan Lefebvre has to say, but unless the Royals are beating the crap out of the ball, I'm FFing between pitches.

Martin

Soccer =/= Baseball !

Submitted by Eride on September 10, 2011 - 4:27pm.

Well for starters I know we won't agree on much because I am primarily a soccer... and then a basketball fan. :) You say it is "just" perception but the truth is that when a large percentage of the population think of something that way (and that percentage is GROWING), and your sport wants to have that portion of the population be a fan of your sport, then you take actions to make that happen. You evolve your sport with the times.

I have tried to enjoy MLB for basically my entire life. My significant other is a huge baseball fan but in my mind MLB has some serious problems and there doesn't seem to be any movement towards addressing the things I view as being the cause of those problems. And when I say things like this I am not damning the entire sport of baseball, I am particularly making comments about MLB. I have watched college baseball/softball, pro-am and minor league games and for the most part I have highly enjoyed those experiences... I can not say that for my overall MLB experience.

You say it is because some people just find it boring like how you view soccer as being boring. Well, no offense, but you obviously haven't tried to enjoy soccer (and yes, I am a long time reader of your blog so I know of your "attempts" :)) if you are comparing a 1-1 result as being equivalently boring to watching a 3.5 hour baseball game where both the pitchers, the batters, the coaches, *everyone* is doing things that cause long amounts of dead time where *nothing* happens. I've been told this is an example of "strategy" in baseball. Well, I am sure it is. I am not questioning that these players and coaches don't have a strategy behind their intentional and boring delays of games. I am questioning why the league allows it! In soccer, the match might end in a tie but almost every second of the match involves movement. The positioning and passing leading up to a goal, and in many cases those same things leading up to a missed shot attempt are the most intense part of soccer. To go with your NFL examples (which I am not a big NFL fan either) it would be like just focusing on the act of the ball crossing into the end zone instead of every single act in every single play leading up to the act of the ball crossing the end zone. I don't blame you for that either, your views are shared by a large percentage of the population (only in the US!) but that is changing! In MLBs case... they are losing viewers. The league can hide its eyes to it and pretend there isn't any legitimate reason people might be turned off by the sport or they can accept it and make changes. Right now it doesn't seem like that has happened yet. I'd they would start by implementing a cap/revenue sharing system like NHL, NFL, <insert almost every professional league on the planet here> that would address the wide inequalities in the league. Maybe if every team's fanbase really believed their team someday had a chance to be very successful the league would have a much larger fanbase right now? Who knows........

Eride:

Submitted by Martin Manley on September 11, 2011 - 1:06am.

Good post. I appreciate it.

But, boredom is not just a function of exposure. It's a function of taste. I would be bored if all I had to do was read comics. It has nothing to do with never having given them a chance. Somebody else is laughing their simplistic (did I say that out loud?) ass off.

Nearly everyone alive would be bored to read tables of statistics all day long. Not me.

Many people are bored with one kind of music, but not another. Someone else is exactly the opposite. Nobody can say why one person likes X and not Y.

It's like food. Name one person on earth that doesn't like pizza. I can name one person - and only one - my dad. I once tried to make him like it (much like soccer fans try to do to the rest of us) and his quote was one I will never forget. He said if you get that thing (piece of pizza) one inch closer to my face, you're going to be eating it "slaunchwise". Now, I've never known what the technical definition of "slaunchwise" is, mainly because it's the only time I ever heard it used. But, I'm pretty darn sure I know what he meant.

Tastes are something that can't be explained. Why blue over yellow? Why day over night? Why soft rock over hard rock? We're human. We have differences.

For me, I'm very impatient. I want action and I want results. Baseball is on the edge of total boredom for me. But, because I only watch KC and they have a pretty good offense and I have DVR remote in my hand at all times... I get the best of all worlds - a thinking man's game with mountains of data and tons of strategy coupled with something that can move pretty fast if I want it to.

Martin

...

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 9, 2011 - 9:35am.

No offense, just some observations:

1. Average MLB game time: ~2 hours 45 minutes. Average NFL Game time: ~3 hours 6 minutes. It's all about perception. You think NFL, you think "action packed". Get that for 3 hours and it feels like a hour. You think MLB, you think "slower than snot". Get that for a little under 3 hours and it feels like a lifetime.

2. Again, a perception issue. Because their is no "snap", no bone crunching tackles, you might think the time in between pitches is 2 minutes, when it's actually a matter of seconds. Put Mark Buerhle on the mount and it's like lighting.

3. Several minutes around the mound? Maybe 20 seconds! The umpire does want the game to get done as quickly as possible and he won't mess around if those huddles start taking too long.

I will agree with your second point. I really do think the large market teams need to be scaled back. My only problem with it: Is the MLB like the Big 12? Here's what I mean...We have Texas (and a little bit of Oklahoma) making all the money for the conference. Without them, the Big 12 is toast. Are the Yankees = to Texas? If we stop the Yankees from being the Yankees, does that hurt baseball more than helping?
JT

NFL has issues, but we are talking about MLB

Submitted by Eride on September 10, 2011 - 4:39pm.

The first google search I did when researching statistics on time between pitches resulted in this article as the first search result.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/06/sports/baseball/06gametime.html

These are the types of things that give baseball the "perception" it has. And you might not agree that it is a legitimate complaint but many, many people do. It took me all of .009 seconds to find an article (by the hometown paper of the largest MLB franchise even) talking about the same problem. It isn't some illegitimate perception that non-fans have of the sport (like 1-1 ties in soccer being boring <sorry martin :)>.

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