Trade pressure from US rallies Brazilians against foreign interference

A 50% tariff on some Brazilian imports took effect on Aug. 6. It’s one of the steepest trade penalties announced this year by US President Donald Trump. But in this case, it wasn’t a move rooted in economic logic. Brazil is not a major trade rival. In fact, the US exports more to Brazil than it imports — the opposite of what typically drives tariff disputes.

For many in Brazil, it’s clear that the real motive behind the harsh tariff is political.

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is currently on trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 election and plotting a military coup. If convicted, he could face up to 43 years in prison. Now, Trump appears to be using trade as leverage to defend his ideological ally, a move that’s drawn widespread backlash.

The new tariffs target a wide range of Brazilian products. But many key exports — including orange juice, aircraft parts and several agricultural commodities — were exempt. That has blunted the broader economic impact. Still, for certain industries, the fallout has been immediate and painful.

One of them is Brazil’s leather shoe sector. In the city of Franca, in São Paulo state, dozens of small and mid-sized factories produce high-end men’s dress shoes — many of which are exported to the United States.

Julio Schreck, who owns an export agency based in Franca, works with producers to meet the strict technical and commercial standards that American buyers demand.

A large American flag hangs in the lobby of his office — a visual reminder of just how central the US market is to his business. Many of his clients supply shoes to high-end American retailers including Johnston & Murphy, Dillard’s and Nordstrom. 

That market, however, is now under threat, and producers in Franca fear it could even disappear altogether, if no negotiation happens soon.

“The shoes are tailored to US specifications,” Schreck said. “They’re more expensive to make and don’t necessarily match what other markets are looking for.” When American buyers cancel orders, he explained, those shoes are harder to sell elsewhere at a profit.

Some producers have already lost business. Júlio César Monteiro Giacometti, who owns a shoe factory in Franca, said about 60% of his production goes to the United States. With orders being canceled, he’s been forced to send workers on collective leave, and a temporary production halt may be next.

“If [American clients] don’t buy from Brazil, they’ll go to Vietnam, China, Portugal,” Monteiro Giacometti said. “There are plenty of alternatives, and this is so sad for us.”

Brazil’s government announced $5.5 billion in emergency loans for exporters hit by tariffs, but Monteiro Giacometti said his company isn’t in a position to take on new debt. 

For shoe exporters in Franca, the future is uncertain. And they are growing frustrated as negotiations seem unlikely. 

Political observers insist that the Trump tariff isn’t about protecting American jobs — it’s about influencing Brazil’s domestic politics, and that makes negotiations more challenging.

“The United States is seeking to benefit his ideological ally in Brazil, a political actor who’s on trial for allegedly having attempted to stage a coup just after the last presidential elections and who’s a very polarizing figure,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian political scientist, referring to Bolsonaro.

In addition to tariffs, the US government imposed sanctions on Brazilian officials involved in Bolsonaro’s case, and Trump called the trial a “witch hunt.”

But rather than weaken the current government, Trump’s move seems to be backfiring. 

Since the tariffs were announced, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval ratings have climbed. Analysts credit a surge of national unity in the face of perceived foreign interference.

“The way Trump framed the tariffs produced a rally-around-the-flag effect,” said Stuenkel. “It allowed Lula to portray himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty — and frame Bolsonaro as aligned with a foreign power.”

That framing appears to be resonating, even in Franca, which is known for its conservative leanings.

“A foreign government shouldn’t interfere with our laws,” said Luz, who only shared her first name and is a resident of Franca. “Bolsonaro’s trial has nothing to do with Donald Trump, and he should stop trying to influence the outcome.” she added.

Public sentiment across Brazil appears to support Lula’s stance.

So far, Brazil has not retaliated. In a recent interview with CNN, Lula said Brazil is open to trade talks, but won’t accept political interference.

“Trump was elected to be president of the United States — not emperor of the world,” Lula said.

On a national level, the fallout is limited. Just 10% of Brazil’s trade is with the US, while nearly 30% is with China. So, Lula has little incentive to bend.

But in specific sectors, the consequences are tangible.

Coffee is another Brazilian export affected by the tariff. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee exporter, and the US is its largest customer.

At COCAPEC, a coffee cooperative outside Franca, business manager Ricardo Ravagnani said the new tariffs came as a surprise, but not a crisis.

“If we can’t sell this commodity to the US, we’ll easily go elsewhere,” he said. However, he explained, American consumers might soon find Brazilian coffee more expensive.

But global demand for coffee remains strong, and Ravagnani said the market is used to price fluctuations, mainly due to climate-driven shortages in several countries. He seemed confident that producers in the region can redirect exports to other buyers.

Unlike other countries largely dependent on US exports, Trump’s tariffs are not shaking Brazil’s economy. 

But they might be stirring something deeper: They’ve united many Brazilians in defense of national sovereignty.

Journalist Yan Boechat contributed to this report.