Building Foresight Capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model
Abstract
This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the interrelated features of the model, and suggests ways that organizations can use the model to enhance the foresight capacity of their talent.
Get full access to this article
View all access and purchase options for this article.
References
Adelman Cliff, Ewell Peter, Gaston Paul, Schneider Carol Geary. 2014. The Degree Qualifications Profile: A Learning-Centered Framework for What College Graduates Should Know and Be Able to Do to Earn the Associate, Bachelor’s or Master’s Degree. Indianapolis: Lumina Foundation.
Ahuja Gautam, Coff Russell, Lee Peggy. 2005. “Managerial Foresight and Attempted Rent Appropriation: Insider Trading on Knowledge of Imminent Breakthroughs.” Strategic Management Journal 26 (9): 791–808.
Alsan Alper. 2008. “Corporate Foresight in Emerging Markets: Action Research at a Multinational Company in Turkey.” Futures 40 (1): 47–55.
Amsteus Martin. 2008. “Managerial Foresight: Concept and Measurement.” Foresight 10 (1): 53–66.
Amsteus Martin. 2011a. “Managers’ Foresight Matters.” Foresight 13 (2): 64–78.
Amsteus Martin. 2011b. “Managerial Foresight: Measurement Scale and Estimation.” Foresight 13 (1): 58–76.
Barney Jay. 1991. “Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage.” Journal of Management 17 (1): 99–120.
Barney Jay. 1997. Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Bishop Peter. 2016. “The University Foresight Network: The Search for Common Ground among Foresight Educators.” World Future Review 8 (1): 6–11.
Bishop Peter, Jarratt Jennifer, Miller Riel, Frewen Cindy. 2017. The Future of Foresight (Working document). Houston, TX: Association of Professional Futurists.
Boyatzis Richard. 2008. “Competencies in the 21st Century.” Journal of Management Development 27 (1): 5–12.
Boyatzis Richard, Saatcioglu Argun. 2008. “A 20-Year View of Trying to Develop Emotional, Social and Cognitive Intelligence Competencies in Graduate Management Education.” Journal of Management Development 27 (1): 92–108.
Bravenboer Darryll, Lester Stan. 2016. “Towards an Integrated Approach to the Recognition of Professional Competence and Academic Learning.” Education + Training 58 (4): 409–21.
Buchen Irving. 2005. “The Futures Agenda of the Future CEO.” Foresight 7 (2): 3–7.
Campion Michael, Fink Alexis, Ruggeberg Brian, Carr Linda, Phillips Geneva, Odman Ronald. 2011. “Doing Competencies Well: Best Practices in Competency Modeling.” Personnel Psychology 64 (1): 225–62.
Candy Stuart. 2010. “The Futures of Everyday Life: Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios.” Doctoral thesis. University of Hawai’i, Manoa.
Chermack Thomas. 2007. “Disciplined Imagination: Building Scenarios and Building Theories.” Futures 39 (1): 1–15.
Chia Robert. 2004. “Re-educating Attention: What Is Foresight and How Is It Cultivated?” In Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, edited by Tsoukas Haridimos, Shepherd Jill, 21–37. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.
Coates Joseph. 2000. “On Being a Futurist.” In Gone Today, Here Tomorrow: Millennium Previews, edited by Slaughter Richard. Sydney: Prospect.
Competency Model Clearing House. 2017. Competency Model User Guides. https://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/cmuserguide.aspx (accessed January 15, 2017).
Costanzo Laura, MacKay Robert. 2009. Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight. 1st ed. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Daheim Cornelia, Hirsch Sven. 2015. “Emerging Practices in Foresight and their Use in STI Policy.” STI Policy Review 6 (2): 24–53.
Daheim Cornelia, Uerz Gereon. 2008. “Corporate Foresight in Europe: From Trend Based Logics to Open Foresight.” Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 20 (3): 321–36.
Day George, Schoemaker Paul. 2005. “Scanning the Periphery.” Harvard Business Review 83 (11): 135–48.
de Geus Arie. 1997. “The Living Company.” Harvard Business Review 75 (2): 51–59.
Ennis Michelle. 2008. Competency Models: A Review of the Literature and the Role of the Employment and Training Administration (ETA). Office of Policy Development and Research, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.careeronestop.org/competencymodel/Info_Documents/OPDRLiteratureReview.pdf (accessed January 15, 2017).
Gary Jay. 2009. “Foresight Styles Assessment: Testing a New Tool for Consulting Futurists.” Journal of Futures Studies 14 (1): 1–26.
Gary Jay, von der Gracht Heiko. 2015. “The Future of Foresight Professionals: Results from a Global Delphi Study.” Futures 71:132–45.
Grim Terry. 2009. “Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field.” Journal of Futures Studies 13 (4): 69–80.
Hamel Gary. 2009. “Moon Shots for Management.” Harvard Business Review 87 (2): 91–98.
Hamel Gary, Prahalad C. K. 1994. “Competing for the Future.” Harvard Business Review 72 (4): 22–28.
Hayward Peter. 2005. From Individual to Social Foresight. Melbourne: Swinburne University.
Hines Andy. 2003. “The Futures of Futures: A Scenario Salon.” Foresight 5 (4): 28–35.
Hines Andy. 2009. “How Accurate Are your Forecasts? More Accurate than You Might Think.” World Future Review 1 (5): 5–22.
Hines Andy. 2012. “The Role of an Organizational Futurist in Integrating Foresight into Organizations.” Doctoral thesis. Leeds Metro-politan University, Leeds.
Hines Andy. 2014. “A Training Ground for Professional Futurists.” The Futurist 48 (5): 43.
Hines Andy. 2016. “‘Final’ Version of Foresight Competency Model.” Association of Profes-sional Futurists Blog, August 3. http://apf.org/2016/08/03/final-version-of-foresight-competency-model/ (accessed October 1, 2016).
Hines Andy, Bishop Peter. 2015. Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. 2nd ed. Houston: Hinesight.
Hines Andy, Gold Jeff. 2013. “Professionalizing Foresight: Why Do It, Where It Stands, and What Needs to Be Done.” Journal of Futures Studies 17 (4): 35–54.
Hines Andy, Zindato Danila. 2016. “Designing Foresight and Foresighting Design: Opportunities for Learning and Collaboration via Scenarios.” World Future Review 8 (4): 180–92.
Hirsch Wendy, Strebler Maire. 1994. “Defining Managerial Skills and Competences.” In Gower Handbook of Management Development, edited by Mumford Alan, 79–96. Aldershot: Gower.
Jarzabkowski Paula, Balogun Julia, Seidl David. 2007. “Strategizing: The Challenges of a Practice Perspective.” Human Relations 60 (1): 5–27.
Keller Jonas, von der Gracht Heiko. 2014. “ICT and the Foresight Infrastructure of the Future: Effects on the Foresight Discipline.” World Future Review 6 (1): 40–47.
Kouzes Jerry, Posner Barry. 2002. The Leadership Challenge. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Lester Stan. 2014. “Professional Standards, Competence and Capability.” Higher Education, Skills and Work-Based Learning 4 (1): 31–43.
Lester Stan. 2016. “The Development of Self-Regulation in Four UK Professional Communities.” Professions and Professionalism 6 (1): 1711–24.
Lester Stan, Costley Carol. 2010. “Work-Based Learning at Higher Education Level: Value, Practice and Critique.” Studies in Higher Education 35 (14): 561–75.
Major Edward, Asch David, Cordey-Hayes Martyn. 2001. “Foresight as a Core Competence.” Futures 33 (2): 91–107.
Markus Leanne, Cooper-Thomas Helena, Allpress Keith. 2005. “Confounded by Competencies: An Evaluation of the Evolution and Use of Competency Models.” New Zealand Journal of Psychology 34 (2): 117–26.
McClelland David. 1973. “Testing for Competence rather than for Intelligence.” American Psychologist 28 (1): 1–14.
Miller Riel. 2008. “Being without Existing: The Futures Community at a Turning Point? A Comment on Jay Ogilvy’s ‘Facing the Fold’.” Foresight 13 (4): 24–34.
Montgomery Cynthia. 2008. “Putting Leadership Back into Strategy.” Harvard Business Review 86 (1): 54–60.
Parkinson Alan, Chew Lynsie. 2016. “An Analysis of Applied Professional Teaching Practices in Relation to Research and Policy.” The Business and Management Review 7 (3): 317–25.
Portnoy Rob. 1999. Leadership: 4 Competencies for Success. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall.
Prahalad C. K., Hamel Gary. 1990. “The Core Competence of the Corporation.” Harvard Business Review 68 (3): 79–91.
Raford Noah. 2012. “From Design Fiction to Experiential Futures.” In The Future of Futures, edited by Curry Andrew, 25–26. Houston, TX: Association of Professional Futurists.
Reid David, Zyglidopoulos Stelios. 2004. “Causes and Consequences of the Lack of Strategic Foresight in the Decisions of Multinational Enterprises to Enter China.” Futures 36 (2): 237–52.
Rhee Kenneth. 2008. “The Beat and Rhythm of Competency Development over Two Years.” Journal of Management Development 27 (1): 146–60.
Rohrbeck Rene. 2011. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Berlin: Physica-Verlag.
Sanchez Ron. 2004. “Understanding Competence-Based Management: Identifying and Managing Five Modes of Competence.” Journal of Business Research 57 (5): 518–32.
Sanghi Seema. 2016. The Handbook of Competency Mapping: Understanding, Designing and Implementing Competency Models in Organizations. New Delhi: Sage.
Schippmann Jeffrey, Ash Ronald, Battista Mariangela, Carr Linda, Eyde Lorraine, Hesketh Beryl, Kehoe Jerry, Pearlman Kenneth, Prien Eric, Sanchez Juan. 2000. “The Practice of Competency Modeling.” Personnel Psychology 53 (3): 703–40.
Slaughter Richard. 1990. “The Foresight Principle.” Futures 22 (8): 801–19.
Slaughter Richard. 1996. “Futures Studies: From Individual to Social Capacity.” Futures 28 (8): 751–62.
Slaughter Richard, Inayatullah Sohail, Ramos Jose. 2007. Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Vols. 1–5. Indooroopilly, Australia: Foresight International.
Spencer Lyle. 1997. “Competency Assessment Methods.” In What Works: Assessment, Development, and Measurement, edited by Russ-Eft Darlene, Bassi Laurie, 1–36. Alexandria: American Society for Training and Development.
Spencer Lyle, Spencer Signe. 2008. Competence at Work Models for Superior Performance. Hoboken: John Wiley.
Stevens Gregory. 2013. “A Critical Review of the Science and Practice of Competency Modeling.” Human Resource Development Review 12 (1): 86–107.
Sutton Paul. 2016. Australian Quarrying Futures: An Evaluation of Future-Oriented Capabilities of Strategy Level Leaders. Toowoomba: University of Southern Queensland.
Tsoukas Haridimos, Shepherd Jill. 2004. Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. 2015. Technical Assistance Guide for Developing and Using Competency Models. http://www.careeronestop.org/competencymodel/cInfo_Documents/TAG.pdf (accessed October 1, 2016).
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. 2016. “Futurist Industry Association Develops Foresight Competency Model.” Competency Models in Action. http://www.careeronestop.org/competencymodel/info_documents/futurist-casesummary.pdf (accessed October 1, 2016).
van der Laan Luke. 2010. Foresight Competence and the Strategic Thinking of Strategy-Level Leaders. Darling Heights: University of Southern Queensland.
van der Laan Luke, Erwee Ronel. 2012. “Foresight Styles Assessment: A Valid and Reliable Measure of Dimensions of Foresight Competence.” Foresight 14 (5): 374–86.
van der Laan Luke, Erwee Ronel. 2013. “In Good Hands? Foresight and Strategic Thinking Capabilities of Regional University Leaders.” In Proceedings of the 36th Higher Education Research and Development Society of Australasia Conference (HERDSA), edited by Frielick S., Buissink-Smith N., Wyse P., Billot J., Hallas J., Whitehead E. Auckland, New Zealand: Higher Education Research and Development Society of Australasia.
Winterton Jonathan, Winterton Ruth. 1999. Developing Managerial Competence. New York: Routledge.
Yukl Gary. 2006. Leadership in Organizations. 8th ed. Boston: Pearson.
Zemke Ron. 1982. “Job Competencies: Can They Help You Design Better Training?” Training 19 (5): 28–31.
Biographies
Andy Hines is assistant professor and program coordinator for the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight and is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight. His twenty-five plus years of professional futurist experience includes a decade’s experience working inside first the Kellogg Company and later Dow Chemical, and consulting work with Coates & Jarratt, Inc., and Social Technologies/Innovaro.
Jay Gary is an associate professor of leadership and assistant dean of Online & Lifelong Learning at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He is also a founding member of the Association of Professional Futurists.
Cornelia Daheim is a foresight consultant. Since 2000, she has been leading corporate foresight projects for customers in the corporate and public sector, for example, Alstom, Evonik, or the European Parliament. She is founder and owner of Future Impacts Consulting in Cologne, a company focused on creating impact today from understanding long-term perspectives.
Luke van der Laan is the director of Professional Studies at the University of Southern Queensland, Australia, and member of the Australian Centre for Sustainable Business Development (ACSBD), Higher Education Research & Development Society of Australasia, World Futures Studies Federation, and Association of Professional Futurists. He holds an honorary professorship at the Far Eastern Institute for International Relations.
Cite
Cite
Cite
OR
Download to reference manager
If you have citation software installed, you can download citation data to the citation manager of your choice
Information, rights and permissions
Information
Published In
Article first published online: July 10, 2017
Issue published: September 2017
Keywords
Authors
Metrics and citations
Metrics
Publication usage*
Total views and downloads: 2136
*Publication usage tracking started in December 2016
Publications citing this one
Receive email alerts when this publication is cited
Web of Science: 0
Crossref: 43
- Exploring the potential for simulation in the development of future foresight leadership skills for healthcare professionals: a scoping review protocol
- Megatrends and weak signals shaping future real estate
- Anticipatory Social Work
- Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study
- Placing the Future
- The metalogic futures model: a framework for transformational organizational and social change
- Blockchain assessment: the future of credentialing
- Infection prevention and control in 2030: a first qualitative survey by the Crystal Ball Initiative
- Bridging foresight and evaluation: A bridge worth building
- Visioning channel evolution for river management: Toward a functional decision support framework
- View More
Figures and tables
Figures & Media
Tables
View Options
Access options
If you have access to journal content via a personal subscription, university, library, employer or society, select from the options below:
I am signed in as:
View my profileSign out
I can access personal subscriptions, purchases, paired institutional access and free tools such as favourite journals, email alerts and saved searches.
loading institutional access options
Alternatively, view purchase options below:
Purchase 24 hour online access to view and download content.
Access journal content via a DeepDyve subscription or find out more about this option.
