Monday, March 14, 2016
A Majority Of The Public Are Ignorant About Foreign Aid
The two charts above show a rather distressing fact -- that most Americans are ignorant when it comes to understanding foreign aid spending by the U.S. government. They believe that the United States is more generous in the foreign aid it provides than other developed nations, and they believe the United States provides too much money to developing nations through foreign aid. Neither of those beliefs are true.
The United States actually is rather stingy when it comes to foreign aid to developing nations, and relative to size, other developed nations give more. For example, the United States gives 75% less in foreign aid than the United Kingdom gives. As a general rule, most developed nations aspire to give 0.7% of national income -- but the United States gives significantly less.
People seem to think that foreign aid makes up a significant portion of the U.S. budget -- and cutting it would free huge amounts of money to spend on other things. The truth is that less than 1% of the budget is spent on foreign aid. If all foreign aid was eliminated, it would have no real impact on the U.S. budget.
The sad fact is that Americans are ignorant about this because they are too lazy to study the budget for themselves. They just accept as fact what their favorite politician tells them -- and that is usually a lie, designed to further the political ambitions of that particular politician.
The charts above were made from a recent YouGov Poll -- done between March 1st and 3rd of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with a 4.1 point margin of error.
Donald Trump - The GOP's Unsolvable Dilemma ?
That would make it very hard to keep the nomination from him -- but that is exactly what many establishment Republicans want to do. His impending nomination terrifies them -- because they think he would lose, and may take a lot of down-ballot Republicans with him.
They are now basing their hopes on a "brokered" convention -- a convention where no candidate has enough delegates to win on the first ballot. After the first ballot, delegates are no longer required to support the candidate they are pledged to -- and could cast their vote for someone else (maybe even a person not running, like Romney or Ryan).
But denying Trump the nomination through shenanigans at a brokered convention could turn out to be just as bad for them as giving Trump the nomination. Remember, while Trump said he would support the party's nominee, he said he would do that only if he felt he was being treated fairly by the party. And snatching the nomination away from him at a brokered convention could easily be seen as unfair treatment.
If Trump thinks he was unfairly denied the nomination, he could run as an independent. He has threatened to do that in the past, and his narcissistic personality would probably demand that he do so. What would happen then? A new Rasmussen Poll (done on March 6th and 7th of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error) shows that 36% of Republicans say they would be likely to vote for him if he does that -- and 24% (a quarter of GOP voters) say they would be very likely to do that.
This puts the GOP squarely between a rock and a hard place. Do they let him become the nominee, or do they stop him (and take the chance he won't run)? It's a dilemma, with huge risks with either choice. And I can't really feel sorry for them, because it's a dilemma of their own creation.
(NOTE -- The caricature above of Donald Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)
New Democratic Polls For Florida, Ohio, And Illinois
FLORIDA
Florida Atlantic University Poll (March 8-11) 414 likely voters (5.0 point moe).
NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll (March 4-10) 500 likely voters (4.4 point moe).
CBS News / YouGov Poll (March 9-11) 796 likely voters (4.5 point moe).
OHIO
NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll (March 4-10) 453 likely voters (4.6 point moe).
CBS News / YouGov Poll (March 9-11) 777 likely voters (5.3 point moe).
ILLINOIS
NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll (March 4-10) 529 likely voters (4.3 point moe).
CBS News / YouGov Poll (March 9-11) 756 likely voters (5.5 point moe).
Hillary Clinton's Stand On Paid Family And Medical Leave
From hillaryclinton.com:
āFor many workers, staying home to take care of a sick child or an aging parent means losing a paycheckāor worse, even losing a job. That is an impossible choice we shouldnāt ask anyone to makeāand yet American workers are forced to make it every day.ā
HILLARY, NOVEMBER 9, 2015
Today, the United States is the only developed nation in the world with no guaranteed paid leave of any kind. In fact, only 13 percent of American workers have access to paid family leaveāwith the lowest paid workers up to four times less likely to have access than the highest paid.Ā
Hillary has long believed itās past time for that to change. In an economy where both men and women typically hold down a paying job and women are breadwinners in two-thirds of families with children, paid family and medical leave is core to our economic growth and competitiveness. Paid leave helps families remain economically stable, benefits childrenās early health and development by allowing parents to care for their newborn children, and reduces employee turnover. The availability of paid leave bolsters our economy by allowing more Americans to participate fully in the workforce and ensures that we donāt leave any talent on the sidelines. Ā
As president, Hillary will:Ā
- Guarantee up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.Ā Under Hillaryās plan, workersāmen and womenāwill be guaranteed up to 12 weeks of paid family leave to care for a new child or a seriously ill family member, such as an elderly, ailing parent or a spouse with cancer, and up to 12 weeks of medical leave to recover from a serious illness or injury of their own.Ā
- Enable hard working Americans to support their families economically while on leave.Ā To ensure families remain stable and supported during both joyful and stressful timesālike when a new baby arrives, a worker gets cancer, or an employee must care for an elderly parent suffering from AlzheimerāsāHillaryās plan will provide financial support to workers taking leave. Under her plan, workers who have met a minimum number of hours the previous year will receive a percentage of their income during leave.Ā
- Ensure at least a two-thirds wage replacement rate for workers.Ā Hillaryās plan will ensure that the wage replacement rate is at least two-thirds of a workerās current wages, up to a ceiling, so that low-income and middle class workers receive the financial support they need to take the leave they need.
- No new business or employee mandate.Ā Hillaryās plan will not impose additional costs on businesses, including small businesses. There is no business or employee mandate to pay for leave, nor is there a payroll tax to pay for it.
- Fund paid leave by making the wealthy pay their fair share, not by increasing taxes on working families.Ā Hillary strongly believes that middle class families deserve a raise, not a tax increase. American families need paid leave, and to get there, Hillary will ask the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share. Sheāll ensure that the plan is fully paid for by a combination of tax reforms impacting the most fortunate.
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Hispanics View Clinton Most favorably (And Despise Trump)
Donald Trump loves to brag about how much he likes Hispanics, and how they will support him in his bid for the presidency. He's either the biggest liar in the presidential campaign, or is completely disconnected from reality. Hispanics have not forgotten that he kicked off his campaign by denigrating immigrants -- calling them rapists and criminals. And they understood the ethnic bigotry in his call for mass deportations, and for building a wall and making Mexico pay for it.
And a new Gallup Poll shows he is the most despised candidate in the presidential race (of either party) among Hispanics. The poll used reports done by Gallup between January and March of Hispanic adults, and had responses of over 1100 for each candidate. The margin of error is 4 points.
Donald Trump is viewed unfavorably by a whopping 77% of Hispanics, and favorably by only 12%. Those are terrible numbers, and not replicated for any other candidate. That is a 47 point higher negative rating than any other candidate.
On the other end of the scale, Hillary Clinton is the candidate viewed most favorably by Hispanics (59% to 26%). That's a 24 point higher positive rating than any other candidate -- with Bernie Sanders in second place with a 35% favorable rating.
Here is the net positive rating of each candidate (figured by subtracting unfavorability from favorability):
Clinton...............+33
Sanders...............+19
Rubio...............+6
Kasich...............+1
Cruz...............-4
Trump...............-65
Latest Polls For March 15th Democratic Primaries
Five states will vote in the Democratic primaries on Tuesday, March 15th -- and all of those states are delegate-rich. They are Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, and Florida.The Sanders campaign, buoyed by their slim victory in Michigan last week, is hoping for more surprises this week -- and it is possible that he could score a close win in one or two of the March 15th states (the most likely being in Missouri and Ohio).
But I remain convinced that it will be a very good night for Hillary Clinton -- and whether she sweeps these states or just wins a majority of them, she will significantly increase her delegate lead after all the votes have been counted.
Here are the latest polls in the March 15th primary states:
FLORIDA
WTSP/Mason-Dixon Poll (March 7-9) 500 likely voters (4.5 point moe).
Quinnipiac University Poll (March 2-7) 511 likely voters (4.3 point moe).
CNN / ORC Poll (March 2-6) 264 likely voters (6 point moe).
Washington Post / Univision Poll (March 2-5) 449 likely voters (6 point moe).
News 13 / SurveyUSA Poll (March 4-6) 823 likely voters (3.4 point moe).
NORTH CAROLINA
High Point University Poll (March 9-10) 669 likely voters (3.8 point moe).
Civitas Poll (March 3-7) 500 likely voters (4.4 point moe).
WRAL-TV / SurveyUSA Poll (March 4-7) 687 likely voters (3.8 point moe).
OHIO
CNN / ORC Poll (March 2-6) 294 likely voters (5.5 point moe).
Quinnipiac University Poll (March 2-7) 521 likely voters (4.3 point moe).
Public Policy Polling (March 4-6) 508 likely voters (4.4 point moe).
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune Poll (March 2-6) voter number and moe not given.
WeAskAmerica Poll (March 7-8) 994 likely voters (3.1 point moe).
MISSOURI
Ft. Hays State University Poll (March 3-10) 145 likely voters (8 point moe).
(NOTE -- The caricatures of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders above are by DonkeyHotey.)
Obama's Three "Finalists" For Supreme Court Nominee ?
But President Obama is not playing their silly (and unconstitutional) game. He has said he will submit a nominee to the Senate, and expects them to do their job (and consider that nominee).
Now it looks like President Obama has narrowed his choices down to three candidates, according to "people with knowledge of the vetting process" (those infamous anonymous sources). Here is how this is being reported by The Washington Post: NOTE --
President Obama is finalizing his decision on a Supreme Court nominee to replace the late Antonin Scalia and appears to have narrowed his choice to three candidates, according to people with knowledge of the vetting process.
The three under consideration are Merrick Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit; Sri Srinivasan, a judge on the same court; and Paul Watford, a judge on the California-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.
Obama said this week that he wanted to make a decision quickly, and his announcement could come as early as next week, the sources said.
The three finalists bring a range of judicial and legal experience to the selection process.
Srinivasan, 49, was born in India and emigrated as a young child with his family to Kansas. A Stanford Law graduate, he would be the high courtās first Asian American and first Hindu.
Srinivasan was nominated in May 2013 to be a judge on the Washington-based appeals court. The Senate confirmed him, 97 to 0.
Garland, 63, was considered by President Obama for a previous Supreme Court vacancy. Garland grew up in Chicago and graduated from Harvard Law School.
Garland served several stints in the Justice Department and supervised such major cases as the prosecutions of Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh and his accomplice, Terry Nichols, and Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. Garland was appointed to the federal circuit court in April 1997 and became chief judge in February 2013.
Watford, 48, grew up in Orange County, Calif., and graduated from the UCLA School of Law.
He worked for four years as an assistant U.S. attorney in Los Angeles before joining the law firm of Munger, Tolles & Olson, where he focused on appellate litigation in state and federal courts. He was appointed by Obama to the federal appeals court in May 2012 after a Senate confirmation vote of 61 to 34.
(NOTE -- The photo of President Obama above is from patheos.com.)
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Most Americans Don't Like (Or Trust) Donald Trump
It's looking more and more like the Republican nominee for president will be Donald Trump. Many Republicans don't like that, and "establishment" Republicans are trying to do what they can to prevent it (because they think it would mean disaster for them in the coming election). But whether they like it or not, their party has been taken over by the teabaggers and racists -- and those people do like Trump.
And those "establishment" Republicans are right. Most Americans simply do not like Donald Trump. About 62% have an unfavorable view of him, 51% consider him a "fraud" or "phony", and perhaps most important, 57% think he would be a dangerous leader.
This is good news for Democrats, regardless of who their nominee is going to be. It means most Independents will vote against Trump, and maybe even a sizable portion of Republicans will vote for a third party or leave the presidential slot on their ballot blank. It is even possible that many would just stay home -- the greatest fear of Republican leaders, because that would negatively affect the chances of down-ballot Republicans.
The charts below were made from information in a recent YouGov Poll -- done between March 3rd and 6th of a random national sample of 1,000 voters, with a 4.2 point margin of error.
A Public Majority Supports Adoption By Same-Sex Couples
We know that a majority of Americans support the right of individuals to marry the person they love -- even if that person is of the same sex. Now we learn that a majority of people in the United States also support the right of same-sex couples to adopt children. About 53% of Americans see nothing wrong with same-sex couples adopting, and providing a good home for, children. Only 32% support continuing bigotry.
This is a good thing -- because it means our country is still moving toward equal rights for all citizens.
The chart was made from the results of a new Rasmussen Poll -- done on March 8th and 9th of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with a margin of error of 3 points.
Public Doesn't Trust The GOP To Nominate A New Justice
The Republicans in Congress seem convinced they will win the White House in November, and because of that, they want the next president to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia. To further that end, Republican senators have vowed to block any nominee sent them by President Obama this year.
Their problem is that, as several polls have shown, the general public thinks President Obama should submit a nominee, and the senate should seriously consider that nominee. Now another poll shows the same thing. A new Public Policy Polling survey (done on March 8th and 9th of a random national sample of 747 registered voters, with a 3.6 point margin of error) shows that 56% of Americans think the vacancy on the court should be filled this year, while only 40% want to wait until next year.
The Republicans seem to be shooting themselves in the foot again, and probably hurting their own chances to win the White House this year. And adding to this idea is the fact that most Americans simply don't trust any of the three leading Republican candidates to nominate a competent justice who will respect the Constitution.
Only 31% trust Donald Trump to nominate the next justice, while only 33% trust Cruz and 26% trust Rubio (see charts above). And that distrust is reflected in both genders, and across all age and racial groups.
If the Republicans do block Obama's nominee, that will make the selection of the next justice an issue in the current presidential campaign -- and that doesn't bode well for the Republicans.
Hillary Clinton's Stand On Campus Sexual Assault
From hillaryclinton.com:
āI want to send a message to every survivor of sexual assault: Donāt let anyone silence your voice. You have the right to be heard.ā
HILLARY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2015
An estimated one in five women report being sexually assaulted while in college. Hillary will fight to bring an end to sexual assault on Americaās campusesābecause every student deserves a safe environment where they can learn and thrive, not live in fear.Ā
Thanks to the efforts of advocates and survivors, we are seeing the beginnings of good work around the country. President Obamaās administration has worked hard to shine a light on campus sexual assault.
Hillary will build on the progress that has been madeāand take on the problems we have yet to solve. Hillaryās plan to end campus sexual assault is guided by three core principles:Ā
- Providing comprehensive support to survivors.Ā Hillary will ensure that every campus offers survivors the support they needāno matter their gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, or race. Those servicesāfrom counseling to critical health careāshould be confidential, comprehensive, and coordinated.Ā
- Ensuring a fair process for all.Ā Too often, the process of addressing a sexual assault on campus is confusing and convoluted. And many who choose to report in the criminal justice system fear that their voices will be dismissed instead of heard. Hillary believes we need a fair process for all involved, whether thatās in campus disciplinary proceedings or in the criminal justice system. This includes providing all parties involved with notice and transparency in campus disciplinary proceedings, and ensuring that complaints filed in the criminal justice system are treated seriously.
- Increasing prevention efforts.Ā We need to recognize that itās not enough to address this problem by responding only once sexual assault occurs. Hillary believes we need to redouble our prevention efforts and start them earlier. She will increase sexual violence prevention education programs that cover issues like consent and bystander interventionāand sheāll make sure we have programs not only in college, but also in secondary school.
- As first lady,Ā Hillary supported the creation of the Department of Justiceās Office on Violence Against Women. She also cast a global spotlight on the issue in her historic 1995 Beijing speech, where she denounced violence against women as a clear violation of human rights.
- As senator,Ā she co-sponsored the 2005 reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act. Additionally, Hillary introduced the CARE Act twice, to ensure that rape and incest victims had access to emergency contraception in hospital emergency rooms. And, in response to the spike in reports of sexual assault cases in the military, she introduced legislation to make emergency contraception available to servicewomen.
- As secretary of state,Ā Hillary rallied the international community to take collective action to end violence against women. She drew attention to the use of rape as a weapon of war and spearheaded a U.N. Resolution that established guidelines for an international response to sexual assault in war torn areas.
Friday, March 11, 2016
The Most Racist Presidential Campaign In Many Years
The picture above is all over social media right now. It shows five women displaying their obvious racism at a Donald Trump rally. And look at their faces -- they are very proud of their racism. And note the faces of those behind them. Do any of them seem disgusted by this obvious display of racism?
It would not be so bad, if these women had been hustled out of the rally by Trump's aides, but they weren't. They have kicked out Blacks, Hispanics, and even reporters, but racists seem to be welcome.
And this is not the only incident. Just a couple of days ago, a white Trump supporters sucker-punched a Black man being escorted out by Sheriff's deputies. He was not arrested until the next day -- after the video of him punching the person for no reason (other than he was a Black man) went viral on social media and cable news programs.
Trump spokespeople say none of this has anything to do with Trump's campaign. That is more than a little disingenuous. Trump started his campaign with inflammatory rhetoric about immigrants, muslims, and other minorities -- and he has continued that hate speech.
That's why the KKK and other white supremacist groups have endorsed Trump's candidacy. They have heard what he is saying -- and it's the same thing they have been saying for years.
I doubt that all of Trump's supporters are outright racists, but a large number of them are -- and the others don't seem to mind. Is that because Trump (and the obvious racists turning out to support him at his rallies) are saying out loud what they are thinking? Probably. Anyone who doesn't oppose this kind of evil, supports it.
Donald Trump has tapped in to the vein of racism that still exists in this country, and he knows that. I don't see how anyone could deny that his campaign is racist -- probably the most racist presidential campaign since George Wallace ran for president in 1968. It's shameful and disgusting -- and horrifying that such a bigoted campaign could be run in this country in the 21st century.
America still has a long way to go to establish a true constitutional equality.
The Top Issues For Voters In This Election Year
The chart above was made from a recent Gallup Poll. It shows the answers given when voters were asked what was the most important issue to them. The survey was held between March 2nd and 6th of a random national sample of 1,019 adults, and has a margin of error of 4 points.
The top three issues were the economy in general (17%), unhappiness with government/politicians (15%), and unemployment/jobs (11%). Immigration and health care tied for fourth with 8% each.
I thought it was interesting that some issues the parties thought they could run on have dropped down in importance for voters. For instance, the Republicans would like to campaign on terrorism and the deficit/debt. But only 6% rate terrorism as the most important issue, and 5% say the same about the deficit/debt. Democrats would have loved to campaign on wages and the wealth gap, but wages comes in at a poor 1%, and the wealth gap is considered most important by only 3%.
It is apparent from this poll, that voters want a government that works (with politicians that can compromise for the good of the country), and they want a healthy economy that produces good-paying jobs. Voters need to realize that won't get any of that by voting Republican.
Hillary Clinton's Stand On LGBT Rights
From hillaryclinton.com:
āWe should ban discrimination against LGBT Americans and their families so they can live, learn, marry, and work just like everybody else.ā
HILLARY, JUNE 13, 2015
Thanks to the hard work of generations of LGBT advocates and activists who fought to make it possible, our country won a landmark victory this past June when the Supreme Court recognized that in America, LGBT couplesālike everyone elseāhave the right to marry the person they love.
But our work to reach the promise of full equality remains unfinished.
LGBT kids continue to be discriminated against and bullied at school, a restaurant can refuse to serve a transgender person, and a same-sex couple is at risk of being evicted from their home. Hillary believes that we must stand firm and keep fighting until every American can not only marry, but also live, work, pray, learn, and raise a family free from discrimination and prejudice.
As president, Hillary will:Ā
- Fight for full federal equality for LGBT Americans.Ā Today in America, nearly 65 percent of LGBT individuals report experiencing discrimination in their daily lives. LGBT youth are nearly twice as likely as their peers to be physically assaulted at school, and 74 percent of LGBT students say theyāve been verbally harassed for their sexual orientation. And a recent study found that nearly 50 percent of of LGBT elders experienced discrimination when applying for senior housing. Despite this discrimination, 31 states do not have fully inclusive LGBT non-discrimination laws. Hillary will work with Congress to pass the Equality Act, continue President Obamaās LGBT equality executive actions, and support efforts to clarify that sex discrimination includes discrimination on the basis of āgender identityā and āsexual orientation.ā
- Support LGBT youth, parents, and elders.Ā Hillary will end LGBT conversion therapy for minors; combat youth homelessness by ensuring adequate funding, and safe and welcoming shelter, for youth; protect LGBT elders against discrimination; improve school climate by working to pass the Safe Schools Improvement Act and the Student Non-Discrimination Act; and collect national data that will help us better serve LGBT individuals and families.
- Honor the military service of LGBT people.Ā Every day, LGBT service members valiantly fight for our country around the world. Hillary believes we should honor their service and ensure they receive the benefits they have earned. As commander in chief, Hillary will upgrade service records of LGBT veterans dismissed due to their sexual orientation and support efforts to allow transgender personnel to serve openly.
- Secure affordable treatment for people living with HIV and AIDS.Ā While the United States has made great progress in the treatment and prevention of HIV and AIDS, our job is not done. As secretary of state, Hillary began an ambitious campaign to usher in an AIDS-free generation. As president, she will continue to drive towards that goal by calling on all Republican governors to extend Medicaid coverage to provide life-saving health care to people living with HIV, capping out-of pocket expenses for people with HIV/AIDS, and expanding the utilization of HIV prevention medications, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).Ā
- Protect transgender rights.Ā We must do more to end discrimination against the transgender community. Hillary believes no one should be held back from fully participating in our society because of their gender identity. As secretary of state, Hillary made it possible for transgender Americans to have their true identity reflected on their passports. As president, she will work to protect transgender individuals from violence by directing the government to collect better data regarding crime victims and seeking to improve reporting of hate crimes; streamline identity documents to remove barriers to transgender Americans changing their gender marker on identification documents; and invest in law enforcement training focused on fair and impartial policing, including in interactions with LGBT individuals. Hillary will invest in law enforcement training that focuses on issues such as implicit bias, use of force, and de-escalation, as well as fair and impartial policing including in their interactions with the LGBT community, in particular transgender individuals. It will also focus on educating police officers on correctly identifying bias-motivated crimes.
- Promote human rights of LGBT people around the world.Ā As secretary of state, Hillary stood before the United Nations Human Rights Council and and told the world's leaders, "Gay rights are human rights."Ā Hillary will continue to promote LGBT human rights and ensure Americaās foreign policy is inclusive of LGBT people around the world, including increasing our investment in the Global Equality Fund to advance the human rights of LGBT people around the world.
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