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UK Polling Report
The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20160625054657/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/tottenham/

Tottenham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5090 (12%)
Labour: 28654 (67.3%)
Lib Dem: 1756 (4.1%)
Green: 3931 (9.2%)
UKIP: 1512 (3.6%)
TUSC: 1324 (3.1%)
Others: 291 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 23564 (55.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Haringey council area.

Main population centres: Tottenham, Tottenham Hale, Haringay, West Green, Seven Sisters, Bruce Grove, Northumberland Park.

Profile: A cosmopolitian, inner city seat in the borough of Haringey. Tottenham has a large ethnic minority population, around a fifth of residents are black, there is a large muslim population. The percentage of white residents understates the variation of this seat, since that itself includes Russians, Cypriots, Irish, eastern European and Jewish communties. The constituency includes the Broadwater Farm estate, notorious for the 1985 riots where PC Keith Blacklock was hacked to death. The estate underwent a massive facelift following the riots and is no longer a crime blackspot, but other areas of the seat like Tottenham Green continue to be blighted by crime, guns and drugs and in 2011 the seat was once again the epicentre of widespread rioting after the shooting of Mark Duggan.

Politics: Formerly represented by the colourful Labour left-winger Bernie Grant, notorious for having allegedly described the Broadwater Farm riots as the police getting "a bloody good hiding", the by-election following his death in 2000 was won by another black MP, David Lammy. Tottenham is a reliably Labour seat, along with its predecessor seats it has returned Labour MPs since 1935, though it was briefly represented by the Conservatives when the sitting Labour MP Alan Browne defected to them in 1962. At a local level Haringey council is split directly down the middle, the western wards that fall under Hornsey and Wood Green retain some Lib Dem strength, the eastern wards in this seat are solidly Labour.


Current MP
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) Born 1972, Tottenham. Educated at the Kings School, Peterborough and SOAS. Barrister. First elected as MP for Tottenham in 2000 by-election. Under-Secretary of State for health 2002-2003, for constitutional affairs 2003-2005, for culture, media and sport 2005-2007 and for Innovation, Universities and Skills 2007-2008, Minister of State for Higher Education 2008-2010. Served briefly as a member of the London Assembly, but stood down almost immediately having been elected as MP for Tottenham in the 2000 by-election.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6064 (15%)
Lab: 24128 (59%)
LDem: 7197 (18%)
GRN: 980 (2%)
Oth: 2318 (6%)
MAJ: 16931 (42%)
2005
Con: 4278 (14%)
Lab: 18343 (58%)
LDem: 5309 (17%)
GRN: 1457 (5%)
Oth: 2277 (7%)
MAJ: 13034 (41%)
2001
Con: 4401 (14%)
Lab: 21317 (67%)
LDem: 3008 (10%)
GRN: 1443 (5%)
Oth: 1432 (5%)
MAJ: 16916 (54%)
1997
Con: 5921 (16%)
Lab: 26121 (69%)
LDem: 4064 (11%)
Oth: 1598 (4%)
MAJ: 20200 (54%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEFAN MROZINSKI (Conservative)
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) See above.
TURHAN OZEN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middle East Technical University. Software engineer. Contested London region 2014 European election.
TARIQ SAEED (UKIP)
DEE SEARLE (Green)
TANIA MAHMOOD (Peace)
JENNY SUTTON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 126 Responses on “Tottenham”
  1. The irony which none of the news stories have mentioned is that Justin was a member of the Labour party for a period during the early Blair years….to my knowledge he has never belonged to the Lib Dems. I don’t see why it was his business to butt into Hornsey & Wood Green given that his official capacity is (was) in Tottenham – I suspect that will prompt the party to react quite harshly

  2. Given that most Tory voters in Hornsey & Wood Green probably have a university degree it’s debatable whether they needed to be informed about tactical voting to stop Labour winning the seat.

  3. MrNameless – that’s true. Labour expelled many members in Liverpool who supported rival candidates. Indeed, until around a decade ago, I’m told Labour even expelled a few who didn’t vote in the local elections.

  4. Expulsion of ordinary Conservative members is extremely unusual. Many routinely support UKIP in euro elections quite openly without any consequences – this tolerance goes back a long way and is partly because the Tories have traditionally been association based with little central power. I recall when I was an association officer in Beckenham many local members refused to vote for Steve Norris and some even voted for Livingstone instead.

  5. don’t know what Justin was thinking of. It seems bizarre…he’s a smart guy.

  6. Could you please update the tania Mahmood detail and picture
    Thanks

  7. Any news about what has happened to Justin?

  8. I am standing as candidate for general election in 07 May 2015.
    Please could you update my photo and other necessary infomaion
    Thanks
    Tania Mahmood

  9. If Jim Murphy is defeated in East Renfrewshire how likely is it that he would put himself forward and be selected as Labour candidate for Mayor of London?

  10. Prediction:

    1. Lab
    2. Cons
    3. Greens
    4. TUSC
    5. LD
    6. UKIP
    7. Peace

    Almost 100 Conservative posters up across Tottenham. As you would expect, quite a few Labour. TUSC flying posting everywhere (inc the inside of telephone booths). One or two Green posters. Not seen a single UKIP or LD poster here. The Peace candidate states she’s doing her A-Levels. Wonder if she’s actually 21?

  11. Justin

    Did they kick you out of the party in the end….or are you just still suspended? Seems that Featherstone is likely to lose despite your intervention so was it worth ruining your chairmanship for?

    Anyone putting up a Tory poster in Tottenham is brave indeed…it’s as likely to attract a brick through the window as a poster saying “paedophile lives here”.

  12. I am still suspended. Have no regrets, and would do it all over again.

    That’s an outrageous comparison. Never known a brick to go through a window supporting a party, least of all here in Tottenham. You might want to delete that ‘contribution’ which is wrong and offensive. @TottenhamTories (on Twitter) have been photographing their posters and tweeting them

  13. From the fastness of his rural idyll in Sussex, Hemmelig imagines Tottenham to be a suburb of LA overrun by the Cripps gang.

  14. Really? That where he live? Unbelievable.

  15. LOL. I think you’re falling for James’s sarcasm Justin. Why is it “unbelievable” that a Tory inclined person would live in Sussex. It is also scarcely believable that you could put up Tory posters all over Broadwater Farm and the like without getting some serious hostility. If that’s what you’re saying I just don’t believe you.

    You must have known the likely reaction to your letter even though everything in it was essentially correct.

  16. Broadwater Farm comes under the West Green Ward. In last year’s council elections, two of the three Tories from that ward lived on the Farm. And, yes, there are poster up on Broadwater Farm (3),

    Yes, I did. So, too, did Tim Montgomery when he endorsed Clegg (for Hallam) in his Times column. Coalition – which is here to stay – leads to that. Time for PR to end wasted votes.

  17. You’re a brave guy, but not cut out for politics (that’s probably a compliment).

    I agree with you on PR, as it happens.

  18. I am looking for seats that were help by Labour in 1935 but by the Conservatives in 1983. There are remarkably few. However, this seat was gained by Labour in 1935 and lost by htem to the Conservatives in 1983.

    Does anybody know of other seats with a similar electoral history?

    It is interesting to see that whilst this seat has changed drastically in character over the years, more than once, the actual consitutency has existed since 1918.

  19. Tottenham had a Labour majority of 9396 in 1983.

  20. Frederic: Dewsbury is one example. It had a Lab maj of 5,268 in 1935 and Con maj of 2,086 in 1983.

  21. David Lammy ws on the radio today advocating name-blind applications to universitities. I wouldn’t disagree with him over that. However, he seemed to overlook the point that it is now poor white working class males who are most disadvantaged when it comes to university applications.

    In my opinion, Lammy’s whole orientation was London specific. For instance, most poor people outside London do not live in tower blocks but in run-down inner-city areas and sink ex-council estates.

    Labour will have to do better at advocating improvements for the whole nation if they are to win in 2020. Lammy does not seem the person to help lead them in that direction.

  22. Frederic: Edmonton is an example: Labour gain in 1935; Conservative gain in 1983

  23. A London politician failing to understand life beyond London- what a surprise.

    As to Frederic’s query the West Riding division of Keighley would be another example of a seat held or won by Labour in 1935 but lost to the Conservatives in 1983.

  24. Bristol East is another example- held comfortably enough by Sir Stafford Cripps in 1935 and famously lost by Tony Benn in 1983 though I suspect the boundaries were rather different.

  25. Nelson and Colne would probably count as another example- a Labour gain in 1935, but Conservative in 1983 in the new form of Pendle. Although Pendle’s boundaries friendlier to the Tories than Nelson and Colne’s were the Conservatives would still have won Nelson and Colne in 1983, as indeed they did in 1979.

  26. Lammy has been fined £5,000 by the ICO for his team’s spam calls promoting his failed London Mayoral candidacy bid.

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