Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update

Everyone with children or grandchildren should read this book, a thirty year update to the original Limits to Growth, which suggested that the global population was using the planet's resources far faster than they could be replaced. Thirty years ago their first book was largely ignored, and in this edition, published in 2004, they found the situation far more dire. There is plenty of proof to back up their statements, but the science is presented in a very readable manner. Curious about what the authors thought now, ten more years later, I found an interview with one, Dennis Meadows. He has dropped out of the field, discouraged, and now believes there is no hope for recovery at all. If you want to get an idea of what the next forty show more years are likely to bring to humanity, read this book. show less

This update is an outstanding reference on both sustainability and an insight on human behavior. The authors suggest we are going into a third revolution, which he calls the sustainability revolution. He summaries the two previous revolutions, agricultural and industrial, then suggests our economic models today are still based on those developed for the industrial revolution. He shows by numerous examples that our economic rules are out of date and require replacing. The new economic models will have to put value on more than just money, more than just income, but also the negative value of resources lost or spent, or pollution generated. he also introduces the "happiness factor" which is more prevalent in European western culture than show more American western culture. He shows that climate change is just a symptom of the bigger issue, overshoot of human population with the earth's renewable resources, and its ability to absorb pollution.

There are many fine points he discusses, such as balancing exponential human growth with linear food output increases, the time lag between controlling CO2 and the dissipation of CO2 from the atmosphere.

I recommend this book for a reference frame of where global economies and culture will shift over the remainder of this century. show less

An update to the 1972 edition, which used early computer modeling techniques and methodology called Systems Dynamics.

Many were upset by the forecast was that there would be a global collapse in the mid-21st century.
Others ignored the forecast, figuring new technologies would be developed to "save us".

This edition has an optional CD-ROM that provides the complete World3 model, which you can run on a PC or Macintosh computer to see the results.

Rosamund McDougall, policy director for the Optimum Population Trust, has chosen to discuss Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update on FiveBooks as one of the top five on her subject -Global Warming:



“…This book was first written in the 1970s and predicts what will happen if the world population keeps rising. Now 30 years on, the updated version looks at how much they got right, such as the projections about carbon emissions. …”



The full interview is available here: http://fivebooks.com/interviews/rosamund-mcdougall-on-global-warming

shelved in HT Green Library - by Reception - Monograph Library (R)

Indeholder "Dedication", "Authors' Preface", " Background", " 1972: The Limits to Growth", " The End of Growth", " 1992: Beyond the Limits", " 1970 - 2000: Growth in the Human Footprint", " What Will Happen?", " Was Limits to Growth Correct?", " Why Another Book?", " Scenarios and Forecasting", " Overshoot and Collapse in Practice", " Plans for the Future", "1. Overshoot", "2. The Driving Force: Exponential Growth", " The Mathematics of Exponential Growth", " Things That Grow Exponentially", " World Population Growth", " World Industrial Growth", " More People, More Poverty, More People", "3. The Limits: Sources and Sinks", " Renewable Sources", " Food, Land, Soil", " Water", " Forests", " Species and Ecosystem Services", " Nonrenewable show more Sources", " Fossil Fuels", " Sinks for Pollution and Waste", " Beyond the Limits", " Living on Capital, Not Income", "4. World3: The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World", " The Purpose and Structure of World3", " The Purpose of World3", " The Structure of World3", " Limits and No Limits", " How to Read World3 Scenarios", " Limits and Delays", " Overshoot and Oscillation", " Overshoot and Collapse", " World3: Two Possible Scenarios", " Why Overshoot and Collapse?", "5. Back from Beyond the Limits: The Ozone Story", " The Growth", " The Limit", " The First Signals", " The Delays", " Overshoot: The Ozone Hole", " The Next Response: Delays in Practice", " Getting Along without CFCs", " The Moral of the Story", "6. Technology, Markets, and Overshoot", " Technology and Markets in the 'Real World'", " Stretching the Limits with Technology in World3", " Some Disclaimers", " Why Technology and Markets Alone Can't Avoid Overshoot", " An Example of Market Imperfection: Swings in the Oil Market", " Technology, Markets, and the Destruction of Fisheries", " A Summary", "7. Transitions to a Sustainable System", " Deliberate Constraints on Growth", " Constraints on Growth Plus Improved Technologies", " The Difference 20 Years Can Make", " How High Is Too High?", " The Sustainable Society", "8. Tools for the Transition to Sustainability", " The First Two Revolutions: Agriculture and Industry", " The Next Revolution: Sustainability", " Visioning", " Networking", " Truth-Telling", " Learning", " Loving", "Appendices", " 1. Changes from World3 to World3-03", "2. Indicators of Human Welfare and Ecological Footprint", " Background", " The Human Development Index of UNDP", " The Human Welfare Index in World3", " The Ecological Footprint of Mathis Wackernagel", " The Human Ecological Footprint in World3", "Endnotes", "List of Tables and Figures with Sources", "Index".

En meget sober opdatering til "Grænser for vækst". Konturerne af problemet står meget klarere og diverse mirakel-løsninger er ikke vejen frem. Hvor er ålene og insekterne blevet af? show less

Livre prêté à Julien Cardot le 12/06/2023.
A été lu par le Gillou
Rendu par Julien le 19/05/24