Retail & Merchandising

Is ROAS the right metric for RMNs? Retail Media Networks (RMNs) have outgrown their early days when untapped demand meant every dollar spent was both high-ROAS and high-incrementality. Today, focusing solely on ROAS incentivizes behaviors that may appear efficient but harm long-term profitability and growth. Here’s how ROAS can be gamed—and why it’s problematic: 1️⃣ Over-spending on Retargeting or Brand Keywords. These tactics drive high ROAS but focus on customers who were likely to convert anyway, resulting in low incremental growth. 2️⃣ Discount-Driven Sales. Discounting boosts ROAS by generating short-term revenue but lowers margins, attracts low-LTV customers, and conditions buyers to expect promotions. 3️⃣ Cutting Spend on High-Incrementality Campaigns. Investing in new customer acquisition or brand building may have lower ROAS but drives long-term growth and quality customer cohorts. These behaviors lead to: ⛔️ Shrinking new customer cohorts. ⛔️ Increased reliance on discounts, reducing margins. ⛔️ Lower customer lifetime value (LTV) and diminished profitability over time. In essence, chasing ROAS at all costs leads to slower growth and declining margins—a losing combination for any business. Efficiency metrics like ROAS are necessary but must be balanced with an effectiveness metric that focuses on long-term outcomes. For example: ✅ 180-Day Contribution LTV: Measure the total revenue contribution from full-price customers acquired over six months. ✅ Incremental Revenue from Non-Brand Keywords: Track revenue generated from truly new demand sources. ROAS is an excellent efficiency metric but a poor north star. Striking the right balance between efficiency and effectiveness will ensure your business scales sustainably while maintaining margins. Keen to hear what other metrics are used for RMNs #advertising #media #tech

$1.7 billion in market value wiped out in just three weeks - all due to one #ransomware attack. One of Britain’s largest retailers, Marks & Spencer (64K employees, ~1500 stores, ~$17B revenue) is still reeling from a cyberattack by the DragonForce ransomware group. It started Easter weekend, was publicly confirmed on April 22nd. We're now weeks into it and they still can’t process online orders or accurately track store inventory. Deutsche Bank estimates they're losing ~$19M per week in profit. According to BleepingComputer, DragonForce gained entry through social engineering, tricking IT helpdesk staff into resetting credentials. This wasn't and isolated incident, the group also targeted two other UK retailers - Co-op (~70K employees) on April 30th and Harrods (~4K employees) on May 1st. Personal data of millions of customers and employees has been exposed. #IT teams are sleeping in offices, and employees now keep cameras on during virtual meetings to verify identities. These attacks mirror the Caesars and MGM 2023 breaches attributed to Scattered Spider. The cybersecurity industry must evolve - we need stronger solutions around identity management, phishing defense, incident response, and backup #resilience. If you're a founder working on new solutions to break this cycle, I'd love to connect.

With most Q2 results in, we’re getting a picture of retail performance. 🔄 A bit like in Uno, the reverse card is being played. Some retailers that have been performing badly are starting to see declines bottom out or are moving into modest growth (think Best Buy, Target, Foot Locker, Peloton, Victoria’s Secret, Gap). 📉 In contrast, some of the traditional star performers are struggling to keep up the fast pace and are seeing a slowdown (think Lululemon, Ulta, Dollar General). 💰 Are economic dynamics playing a role here? Partly. But strategy and competitive forces remain critical. Ulta has more competition, so too does Lululemon which failed to inspire with its womenswear in Q2. Target has recently invested a lot in price and value. Foot Locker, Victoria’s Secret and Gap all have turnaround programs. 🤔 On this front, don’t always buy the narratives retailers spin. Dollar General blames its weaker numbers on pressures on its customers. There is truth in this, but it has been true for a long time. The issue now is that inflation is not flattering the growth as much and there is more price competition in grocery. Oh, and some stores are terrible and are preventing sales and repeat visits.  🖼️ The long-term picture remains vital because quarterly results fluctuate and create noise. An example is Nordstrom, which has 3.4% growth this quarter, versus Dillard’s which has a 4.9% decline. Look at the Q2 numbers compared to 2019, and Dillard’s has grown sales by 4.4% while Nordstrom’s sales have grown by just 0.2%. A long term view is sometimes a better signal of the health of the business model. 🏡 Home related categories remain very pressured. A lot of this is linked to the more sluggish housing market: moving is an important driver of demand. Some bigger ticket purchases are financed, so high interest rates play a role too. ↔️ The market remains polarized with a balance of winners and losers. Out of the selection in the graph below, 17 retailers are in growth and 18 are in decline. 🐌 Growth rates have, generally, deteriorated since Q1. From the retailers shown below, 21 have lower growth rates than in Q1, 14 have higher growth rates. The average, overall growth rate has dropped by a modest 0.5 percentage points since Q1. So no recession, but some modest slowdown. #retail #retailnews #earnings #consumer #economy #shopping

In retail, many chase the next big thing—a new style, a new way to reach consumers—triggering a frantic race to adopt. But most trends fade as fast as they appear. The real game-changers are curated habits that prove they can stand the test of time. I’ve championed social commerce as the future of retail for over a decade. In hindsight, that barely scratches the surface. It’s now a deeply ingrained consumer behavior. The imperative isn’t just to adopt it, but to evolve with it—constantly and intentionally. At HSN, social commerce was core to our strategy. We pioneered the blend of shopping and entertainment. That’s the essence: finding the sweet spot where entertainment, connection, and commerce converge. Soon after, platforms like Twitch began enabling users to both game and shop in real time, blending entertainment with commerce. Fanatics has successfully leaned into this model as well, immersing fans in live experiences while showcasing gear in action, often worn by their favorite athletes and community, turning fandom into a powerful trust signal. More recently, TikTok Shop collapsed the purchase funnel into a single scroll. It's no longer discover, then buy. Now, it’s see it, want it, buy it—seamlessly, in-platform. So, as we look ahead, how do I see this "social commerce habit" evolving? Here's what I expect: 🔹 Creator Integration is Non-Negotiable. For Gen Z, in particular, TikTok Shop has become a primary discovery engine. They trust their favorite creators to genuinely try products and offer honest feedback. The more brands lean into authentic partnerships with creators, the more trust they build in this integrated shopping experience. It’s about relationship-driven commerce. 🔹 Embrace a Zero-Click World. Speed and simplicity are paramount. Consumers need to be able to see, buy, and receive as fast as humanly possible. This means minimal clicks, minimal friction, and no moments for reconsideration. It's about instant gratification and removing all barriers between desire and ownership. 🔹 Elevate Live Shopping. This is a powerful return to the personal connection and real-time interaction that defined the best of traditional retail. Shoppable videos and live sessions transform social media into a personalized shopping aisle. Imagine experts demonstrating products, showing how they fit or can be styled, all in real-time, tailored to your interests. It brings humanity back to digital retail. 🔹 Unlock the Power of Virtual Try-Ons. A longstanding hurdle in e-commerce is "try before you buy." AI-enabled virtual try-on features solves that, making online shopping more immersive and convenient. This translates directly into higher conversion rates, deeper engagement, and customers spending more valuable time interacting with your brand digitally. It’s time to stop treating social commerce like a trend. This is commerce, full stop. It’s a fundamental consumer behavior that belongs at the center of every modern retail strategy.

I’ve spoken with 20 searchers who acquired a business that failed. Here’s the #1 reason why they failed 👇🏼 The seller: ⛔️ Lied ⛔️ Knowingly withheld critical information ⛔️ Made incorrect statements on the purchase agreement and/or representations and warranties. None of these things were not caught during due diligence- even after a Quality of Earnings (QoE) review. In retrospect, many of these issues could not have been identified before the acquisition. 💡REMINDER💡 The seller will always know WAY more about the condition of the business than you as the buyer ever will. There are 29 million small businesses in America. Do a deal with an seller you can trust.

If more of your store sales start on TikTok lately, you might wanna read this. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘦. The checkout happens in-store. But the sale happens everywhere else. Here's the reality: This year 60%+, and in 2027, 70% of retail sales will be digitally influenced. I can't emphasize this enough; here's what most brands miss—digital influence isn't just about online sales. It's about shaping every moment before the customer even walks into your store. L'Oréal cracked this code: 100M+ AR try-on sessions driving real conversions. 31 brands orchestrating seamless experiences across 72 countries. No.1 in beauty influencer marketing (29% market share), 20-80% higher conversion rates through enhanced digital experiences. The new customer journey isn't linear—it's layered: - They discover you on social - Research you through reviews and UGC - Try your product virtually through AR - Get retargeted with personalized content - Finally purchase in-store (feeling confident they're making the right choice) Every touchpoint matters, and every interaction influences the final decision. The brands winning today aren't just selling products—they're orchestrating experiences across owned, paid, and earned media that guide customers from curiosity to checkout. Digital discovery is increasingly pay-to-play and shoppers are paying attention. ++ Tactical Recommendations for CPG / FMCG Brands ++ 1. Beyond just having perfect, high SOV product pages, create discovery ecosystems. - Optimize for "zero-moment-of-truth" searches. - Activate shoppable content at scale. - Leverage user-generated content as social proof. Brands that do these see a 35% higher conversion rate from digital touchpoints to in-store purchases. 2. Connect digital engagement directly to retail execution. - Geo-target digital campaigns to drive foot traffic - Create "store-specific" digital content CPG brands using geo-targeted social ads see a 23% higher in-store sales lift in targeted markets. 3. Most important one; stop flying blind—measure digital influence on offline sales. - Implement unique promo codes for each digital touchpoint to track conversion paths. - Use customer surveys at point of purchase. - Partner with retailers on shared data insights Brands with proper attribution see 15-25% improvement in marketing ROI within 12 months. 𝗧𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 ecommert® 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟰,𝟲𝟬𝟬+ 𝗖𝗣𝗚, 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘁® : 𝗖𝗣𝗚 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿. #CPG #FMCG #AI #ecommerce Procter & Gamble PepsiCo Unilever The Coca-Cola Company Nestlé Mondelēz International Kraft Heinz Ferrero Mars Colgate-Palmolive Henkel Bayer Haleon Kenvue The HEINEKEN Company Carlsberg Group Philips Samsung Electronics Panasonic North America

Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend Sees Record Number of Shoppers A record 200.4 million consumers shopped over the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through #cybermonday, surpassing last year’s record of 196.7 million. The figures surpassed National Retail Federation initial expectations of 182 million shoppers by more than 18 million. “The five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday represents some of the busiest shopping days of the year and reflects the continued resilience of consumers and strength of the economy,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. Consumers utilized #online and #instore channels throughout the weekend, with 121.4 million people visiting physical retail locations to browse items and make in-store purchases. This figure is consistent with 122.7 million in 2022. Online shoppers totaled 134.2 million, up from 130.2 million last year. Black Friday continued its streak as the most popular day for in-store shopping, with 76 million shoppers opting to visit bricks-and-mortar locations, up from 73 million in 2022. About 59 million consumers shopped in stores on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, down from 63.4 million last year. Black Friday was also the most popular day for online shopping. Roughly 90.6 million consumers shopped online on Black Friday, up from 87.2 million in 2022. By comparison, approximately 73 million consumers shopped online on Cyber Monday, down slightly from 77 million last year.  Consistent with last year, about 44 million consumers used their home desktop or laptop to shop online on Cyber Monday. Another 40.5 million shopped online using their mobile devices, down from a record 45.7 million in 2022 but still well above pre-pandemic levels.  The top destinations for Thanksgiving weekend shoppers were online (44%), grocery stores and supermarkets (42%), department stores (40%), clothing and accessories stores (36%) and electronics stores (29%). Consumers spent $321.41 on average on these items, consistent with $325.44 last year. Approximately 70% ($226.55) was spent on gifts. The top gifts shoppers purchased during the five-day period were clothing and accessories (bought by 49% of those surveyed), toys (31%), gift cards (25%), books, video games and other media (23%), and personal care or beauty items (23%). Consumers reported that on average, 55% of their Thanksgiving weekend purchases were driven by sales and promotions, up from 52% in 2022. Retailers have continued to respond to earlier holiday demand with sales and promotions throughout the season. 55% of consumers took advantage of early holiday sales and promotions. About one-third shopped explicitly in the week leading up to Thanksgiving (Nov. 16-22).  Like last year, 85% of consumers had started holiday shopping as of Thanksgiving weekend and are about halfway done. #retailing #brands Kohl's Walmart Amazon Macy's Randa Apparel & Accessories Haggar Clothing Co.

The numbers show just how hard retail pharmacy is getting. Even if you’re one of the biggest and most efficient pharmacy operators. Put aside Walgreens’ strategic missteps (e.g., retail health and VillageMD) for a moment and consider its pharmacy track record over a 10 year period, 2015 to 2024, per its 10-k's: Pharmacy revenue per store: $6.5M → $10.4M (+59% growth) 30 day prescriptions per store per week: 2,101 → 2,751 (31% more volume) Total retail revenue: $80.8B → $115.8B (43% growth) Revenue per 30 day prescription: $59.74 → $72.46 (21.3% growth) Total 30 day prescriptions dispensed: 894M → 1.2B (37% growth) All metrics heading in the right direction! So where are the problems? Pharmacy gross margins: 22.9% → 12.7% (!!!) Pharmacy gross profit per 30 day adjusted prescription: $13.69 → $9.23 30 day prescriptions as % of total prescriptions: 81% → 65% Front store revenue per 30 day prescription: $30.64 → $21.94 There’s a lot going on here, but a primary part of the story seems to be: for much of the early 2000s, pharmacies made up for declining reimbursement for brand drugs through higher margin generics. And then PBMs started ratcheting down reimbursement for established multisource generics (and overall through various mechanisms), pharmacies were able to at least fight back as new generics were introduced. But generic dispensing rates started to hit the ceiling (~85%) in the mid 2010s, so pharmacies made another well-intended bargain: more 90 day prescriptions. Lower margin, but addresses non-adherence and does bring in more upfront gross profit and revenue. The problem is that if people only come to the pharmacy every 90 days (vs every 30), spend in the front store goes down as well. The truly scary part: Walgreens averages $13.5M total revenue per store. The average independent is at ~$5M, per National Community Pharmacists Association (NCPA) Meanwhile, CVS Health’s PBM division generated $7.2B of operating income, accounting for roughly 60% of total income for the $373B revenue company in 2024. How can pharmacies survive?  Maybe vertical integration with PBMs and payers, like CVS Pharmacy, but that brings its own set of issues. Maybe expansion of clinical scope of practice, something that DocStation enables and CPESN Networks is doing in North Carolina to great effect. Maybe through technology and artificial intelligence. Maybe through service innovation such as prescription delivery, a la Capsule. But it’s hard for me to see a sustainable path forward without addressing adequate reimbursement and addressing the power imbalance between pharmacies and PBMs. Which is a shame, because pharmacists are perhaps our most underutilized, trusted and highly trained clinicians who could be doing so much more. What else is needed? And what am I missing? Adam Fein Samm Anderegg, PharmD Troy Trygstad Tony Schueth Pooja Babbrah Antonio Ciaccia Douglas Hoey #Pharmacy #RetailHealthcare

How can retailers activate in-store experiences that can scale efficiently and measure incremental impact? 🤝 In-store media requires cross-functional collaboration across marketing, merchandising, and retail media teams. Merchant alignment is essential to ensure in-store media supports broader category goals, promotions, and pricing strategies. However, fragmentation between teams often leads to inconsistent execution. 💰 High upfront investment in digital screens, infrastructure, and maintenance makes scalability a challenge. Retailers must balance technology costs with expected ROI. Additionally, ensuring planogram compliance and optimizing store layouts for maximum visibility and shopper impact requires coordination across teams. 📊 In-store media success is evaluated through POS data, sales lift analysis, customer sentiment surveys, and match market tests. These methods help brands understand the impact on purchasing behavior, optimize budgets, and refine in-store strategies. 🐢 Crawl Phase: Retailers should pilot technologies, gather initial data, and build a scalable business model while training teams and refining measurement approaches. Early-stage collaboration with merchants ensures that in-store media aligns with overall store operations and merchandising priorities. 🚶 Walk Phase: Use data insights to optimize content, improve store-level targeting, and scale successful pilots. Refining planograms and integrating in-store media with category management strategies help maximize effectiveness. Introduce advanced features like interactive displays, mobile integration, and AI-driven recommendations to enhance engagement. 🏃 Run Phase: Fully integrate online and in-store strategies to create seamless in-store experiences that can measure omnichannel impact. Collaborate closely with merchants, store operations, and category managers to ensure store layouts, promotions, and digital touchpoints work together.

You might know Liquid I.V. for their saves-the-day electrolyte mixes, but we know them for something else...being savvy about measuring the omnichannel impact of their marketing. For example: Liquid I.V. sells their products on their DTC site and Amazon, and they had a hunch Meta ads were driving conversions across all sales channels, but were having a tough time measuring it with the available data. To quantify the omnichannel impact from Meta ads, they ran an incrementality test with Haus. The treatment group received Meta ads while the holdout group did not – enabling Liquid I.V. to measure outcomes that happened because of Meta ads against outcomes that would have happened anyway. The experiment revealed that Meta ads drove: - A 4.95% lift in total Amazon sales - A 10% lift in DTC orders off Liquid I.V.’s website Huge 👏 to the forward thinking team of Brooke Cullison and Aaron Jones at Liquid I.V. and our partners Stephen S.., Laura Floyd, Max Gillette (Almqvist), Alan Durkin, and Anne Qin at Meta for their work on this. Link to the full case study in the comments!