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Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R0) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an R0 as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R0 as high as 2.4.
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This work was supported by National Institute of General Medical Sciences MIDAS grant U01-GM070749 and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases grant R01-AI32042. The authors thank F. Hayden, K. Stöhr, P. Glezen, A. Monto, S. Dowell, and B. Schwartz for their helpful comments.
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Published In
Science
Volume 309 | Issue 5737
12 August 2005
12 August 2005
Copyright
American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Submission history
Received: 6 June 2005
Accepted: 14 July 2005
Published in print: 12 August 2005
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