Negotiation

The Israel-Hamas war is exacting an unfathomable human toll with each passing day. As we grapple with the violence and loss of life, we also seek to assess the broader implications of the continued fighting, including the economic impact. In past years, we’ve seen other geopolitical crises shock the world, dominate global headlines and alter the course of history. But we’ve often seen that the global #economy is not impacted proportionally. Below we answer some common questions we’re hearing from our clients in response to the latest developments: Could oil prices spiral and crash the economy? While there is no set price that will tip the economy into a #recession, the relationship with the US consumer is very much linear: Every dollar that gasoline prices rise as a result causes a bit more pain. As of now, we don’t expect #oil prices to spiral. We believe the most likely scenario is that Brent crude oil fluctuates between USD 90/bbl and USD 100/bbl, alongside any local escalations. While pressure toward the USD 105–110/bbl range is possible with an incremental reduction in Iranian exports, there is currently spare capacity sitting with OPEC+ to help offset the impact. A more pronounced move above USD 120/bbl likely would only come with a significant supply disruption, which is possible yet remains a tail risk, in our view. Is gold the right hedge?   If you look at history, the percent change in the gold price following risk-off events has been around the mid-single digits, on average. In this case, we’ve once again seen #gold prove its worth in long-term portfolios as a geopolitical hedge. We believe investors should hold existing positions. Still, we would remain cautious in chasing the recent move too aggressively. In the absence of a major escalation, you’re left with a relatively uncertain fundamental and technical picture with the dollar likely to remain resilient in the coming months, and ETF flows yet to show a meaningful pickup. Bottom line: How to invest? Geopolitical events have rarely left a lasting mark on markets. Therefore, the best course of action is almost always to stay diversified and stay invested. In addition to geopolitical tensions, we also expect growth to slow in 4Q, inflation to continue to cool, and yields to trend lower over the next 12 months. Against this backdrop, we continue to prefer high-quality bonds. Within equities, any disruption to oil prices further supports our preference for energy within our US sector allocation. Read the full report below.

The day after: with election uncertainty behind us, investors will focus on future clarity on policy priorities and implementation vs. what was proposed. 5 quick takeaways from me, David Kelly and Stephanie Aliaga: 1. A Republican controlled Congress increases the potential for significant policy changes, including tax cuts, deregulation and higher tariffs. The size of the Republican majority in both chambers will be key, as will Trump’s own priorities once in office. 2. U.S. equities remain supported, particularly on the back of robust growth and broadening earnings. However, risks around higher long-end yields and tariff implications don’t seem to be reflected in market prices and could generate volatility ahead. 3. At times, policy and market returns can take diverging directions. The performance of the Energy Sector and Clean Energy under the Trump and Biden administrations are a great example (see chart below). There's more to stock returns than politics and policy - macro context, global commodity prices, interest rates, risk appetite, and starting valuations matter more over a longer stretch of time. 4. Bond yields likely to remain volatile and elevated on the back of fiscal concerns, while trade uncertainties contribute to dollar strength and FX volatility. 5. Markets can thrive under various government configurations and diversification can help balance portfolios against unknown risks. #markets #economy #election

🚨 🐻 🇷🇺 - New Recorded Future Insikt Group report! This was an incredible team effort led by Cal G, with myself, Julian-Ferdinand Vögele, and Lawrence S. Over the past 13 months, the pro-Russian hacktivist group NoName057(16) has carried out an astonishing 3,776 unique DDoS attacks, averaging 50 targets per day, with peaks aligned to major geopolitical events. Their tool of choice? DDoSia, a custom application-layer attack platform run by a volunteer-driven network. These are not random disruptions. They are deliberate, retaliatory strikes designed to punish Ukraine and its allies — particularly NATO-aligned European governments, critical infrastructure providers, and public-sector organizations — for opposing Russian aggression. 🔍 Key Takeaways: ♦️ NoName057(16) operates a multi-tiered C2 infrastructure to obfuscate attribution and evade takedown, rotating Tier 1 servers every 9 days on average. ♦️ Attacks are politically timed and clearly aligned with Russian military interests, including a major spike after Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk. ♦️ Operation Eastwood — a coordinated international law enforcement action — led to arrests and 24 house searches targeting the group’s infrastructure across Europe. But NoName057(16) remains undeterred, publicly dismissing the crackdown and reaffirming its “information war” mission. 🛰️ This is hybrid warfare in action. It’s cyber-enabled influence operations designed to destabilize without crossing the threshold into open war. DDoSia is not about sophistication — it’s about persistence, scale, and political signaling. This is the future of conflict. Public and private entities are no longer just collateral damage, rather they are the primary targets of hostile state-aligned cyber campaigns. The West must treat these attacks as indicators of strategic intent, not noise. 🔑 Organizations must harden DDoS defenses, track volunteer hacktivist networks, monitor geopolitical flashpoints to maintain situational awareness, and recognize that law enforcement disruption alone is not deterrence — but it compounds to support resilience over time. NoName057(16) offers a blueprint for digitally crowdsourced cyber warfare — a model likely to persist and proliferate. Their infrastructure may be tactically fragile, but their political utility ensures their relevance. Please read and share with your networks! PDF: https://lnkd.in/e2tdzgGp

Geopolitics are never easy to forecast, but markets behaved like a crystal ball this week, signaling the Iran conflict was over long before peace talks were announced. Iran had launched retaliatory missiles at a US military base in Qatar on Monday, something that analysts a day earlier cautioned could lead to a pullback in equities and a spike in crude. Instead, though, stocks climbed while oil prices dropped in part because the Iran strike was minimal and caused no casualties. As far as markets are concerned, the biggest risk would have been Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and curbing global oil supply. Yet based on the tepid response in crude prices, commodity traders did not see this as likely. That helps explain why the stock market did not reacted negatively. “If oil traders aren’t too concerned about events involving Iran, it is difficult for their equity counterparts to maintain a major case of nerves,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist for Interactive Brokers. Full analysis in Opening Bell Daily! 👇

📊 Investors React to Election Results: Winners and Losers Investors are showing clear preferences after election results. Here’s a breakdown and the underlying drivers: 🔼 Top Performers: - Financials (+6.16%): Tax cuts and lighter regulations are expected to spur economic growth, which benefits financial institutions. Increased spending could lead to more borrowing and investments, driving the sector forward. - Industrials (+3.93%): Pro-business policies, such as reduced regulations and tax cuts, fuel economic growth, making industrial stocks more attractive. Additionally, companies with a domestic focus benefit from tariffs that penalize imports. - Consumer Discretionary (+3.62%): Increased economic growth and potential tax cuts often lead to higher consumer spending. Sectors like retail and leisure could see a boost as disposable income rises. Energy (+3.54%): Less regulatory pressure on traditional energy sectors like oil and gas could increase production and profitability, driving up stock values in this space. - Information Technology (+2.52%): Although international tech companies may feel the pinch of tariffs, domestic-focused tech firms are still poised for growth, especially with a potential boost from stronger economic conditions. 🔽 Underperformers: - Utilities (-0.98%) and Consumer Staples (-1.57%): These defensive sectors generally underperform in a high-growth, high-inflation environment. With the prospect of economic expansion, investors tend to rotate out of safe-haven assets into more cyclical stocks. - Real Estate (-2.64%): Higher interest rates, expected because of inflation, could make borrowing costlier, negatively impacting real estate investments. 💬 Key Drivers Behind Market Sentiment: - Tariffs: Domestic-focused companies benefit as tariffs make imported goods more expensive. However, this could harm companies that are heavily reliant on international markets and supply chains. - Tax Cuts & Reduced Regulation: Expected tax cuts and deregulation catalyze higher economic growth, favoring cyclical sectors like financials, energy, and industrials. - Defense Spending: Increased defense budgets could provide tailwinds for contractors and related industries. - Inflation & Interest Rates: Higher interest rates are anticipated with rising inflation concerns. This strengthens the dollar, making U.S. equities more attractive than fixed-income securities. 📈 Investment Implications: The election results signal a potential economic policy shift favoring domestic, cyclical, and growth-oriented sectors. In this environment, investors might find more opportunities in equities over fixed income, especially in sectors benefiting from economic expansion and reduced regulatory constraints. This post is for informational purposes, not investment advice. 

This week's Secret CFO newsletter (sponsored by Campfire 😉) nailed why most finance leaders get blindsided by company politics. Here's the top takeaways – plus a few of my own. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗮𝗻'𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 "𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀." As finance teams, we often think our job is to report numbers, tell the story, and keep the trains running. But here's what I've learned—doing all of that effectively requires understanding the political landscape. 🎯 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝟯 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲-𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀: 𝟭/ 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲'𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 I make it a point to ask direct questions:   • What are your KPIs?   • What does success look like for you?   • Is a board member looking to exit while you’re pushing for the long game?  • Is marketing behind plan and in need of budget to hire their way out? When you understand what drives people—you can better play the politics to drive mutual success. As a finance leader, hitting your financial plan requires every other stakeholder hitting their plan, so be sure to remind them of the alignment even when you’re declining their request for more headcount. 𝟮/ 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 "𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗿𝗴 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁" The real decisions aren't made in board meetings—they happen in hallway conversations, pre-meeting chats, and post-meeting debriefs. Understanding who influences whom and where the real discussions happen is crucial, especially in larger organizations. 𝟯/ 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿-𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻 (𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆) I learned this the hard way during a major re-organization. When we announced the changes, I didn’t invest in each team member and understand how they felt about it. I shaped the communications based on what was shared by the leadership team. If you don't fill the communication void with the correct messaging, someone else will—and it probably won't be with the right information. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲: Great finance leaders don't just manage numbers—they manage relationships and understand that alignment drives results. Politics are happening in the workplace, so own it. It's not "me vs. them". It's about playing the game to get everyone to goal—and delivering on your finance plan in the process. Original post linked in the comments 👇

I Was Right. Now What? Back in April 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, I wrote an article titled “Can China Use Coronavirus to Pave the Way to a New World Order?” It sparked outrage, criticism, and pushback. Many dismissed the idea as paranoia, conspiracy, or geopolitical fearmongering. Fast forward to 2025, and everything I wrote has played out. China did leverage the crisis to expand its influence, consolidate power, and position itself as an indispensable global leader. The Health Silk Road evolved into a strategic arm of its Belt & Road Initiative, exporting not just medical supplies but ideology, technology, and dependency. While the West struggled with internal divisions, China tightened its grip on global supply chains, critical minerals, AI, semiconductors, and infrastructure. Nations that received pandemic aid found themselves increasingly tied to Beijing’s economic and political orbit. And yet, we are still acting surprised. So where do we go from here? 1. Wake Up to Strategic Reality – The world is not multipolar; it’s increasingly being shaped by a China-led order vs. a fragmented West. We must acknowledge this rather than reacting in crisis mode every few months. 2. Rebuild Competitive Resilience – Western economies must reindustrialize, secure supply chains, and regain technological leadership in AI, quantum computing, and biotech. No more naïve assumptions about “co-opetition.” 3. Strengthen Alliances Beyond Optics – Diplomatic summits mean nothing without action. The U.S., EU, India, Japan, and key global players need a long-term strategy that prioritizes innovation, energy independence, and economic alliances over short-term political cycles. 4. Reclaim the AI & Tech Agenda – The AI race is not just about efficiency; it’s about control and influence over the future of intelligence itself. China understands this. Does the West? 5. Stop Chasing Yesterday’s Problems – Instead of rehashing old debates about “who lost manufacturing to China,” focus on where the next wave of strategic leverage will come from—be it AI, green energy, biotech, or space technology. We don’t need another round of performative outrage. We need bold, coordinated, and long-term action. The time to act was yesterday. The next best time is now https://lnkd.in/e2U8ifx4

When Geopolitics Accidentally Saves Your Road Trip Budget Here's a delicious irony: while CFOs everywhere are stress-testing scenarios for supply chain disruptions, Mother Nature and international diplomacy just handed American consumers their cheapest summer gas prices since 2021. At $3.20 per gallon, gasoline costs less than a decent coffee in Manhattan. The Middle East cease-fire between Israel and Iran has kept Brent crude stable around $67/barrel, proving once again that geopolitical risk premiums can evaporate faster than your quarterly earnings projections. This scenario perfectly illustrates why sophisticated treasury teams hedge energy exposure through derivatives rather than crystal balls. Oil jumped 7% on initial conflict fears, then retreated to baseline levels within weeks. Classic volatility whiplash that separates amateur risk managers from seasoned professionals. Consider this: with 62 million Americans driving for July 4th (up 2.2% YoY), consumer discretionary spending gets a tailwind from energy savings. Every $0.20 reduction in gas prices translates to roughly $2.5 billion in additional consumer purchasing power monthly. Smart CFOs are already modeling this windfall. Airlines benefit from lower jet fuel costs, logistics companies see margin expansion, and consumer staples companies anticipate stronger demand. Meanwhile, energy sector valuations face headwinds despite stable production metrics. OPEC Plus production increases signal strategic inventory management, creating fascinating parallels to corporate working capital optimization. Sometimes the best hedge against volatility is simply increasing supply flexibility. This gas price story reveals how quickly external shocks can reverse. Corporate resilience requires scenario planning that accounts for both crisis and unexpected relief. Today's energy savings could become tomorrow's inflation hedge if geopolitical tensions reignite. As Robert McNally of Rapidan Energy Group noted, avoiding oil price spikes remains a political priority. For corporate strategists, this reinforces the importance of maintaining optionality in energy-intensive business models. Bottom line: When geopolitics accidentally boosts your margins, don't assume it's permanent. Use the breathing room to strengthen your defensive positions. #CorporateFinance #EnergyMarkets #RiskManagement #SupplyChain #GeopoliticalRisk #TreasuryManagement #StrategicPlanning #OilPrices #FinancialStrategy #BusinessIntelligence

A must read by Tim Orlick and others at Bloomberg looking at US-China relations, underscoring how China historically had prepared for struggles. Case in point. China learned important lessons during the Phase one trade talks in Trump 1.0 and took steps to prevent a repeat Beijing reduced its dependence on the US market through domestic production but also through partner diversification. It developed a tool box beyond tariffs to threaten or actually hurt US companies and others. And it made sure that it would bring its own leverage to the table, identifying critical minerals and magnets as a key choke point that would change Washington’s calculus in future talks. This by no means signifies that China has the absolute upper hand in ongoing trade talks. But Beijing is clearly in a much stronger position this time around.

I was working in the Iran, Iraq, and Gulf States office of the White House at the moment the Iraq War officially ended, eight long years after manufactured hysteria about nuclear weapons started it. The Iraq war killed over 300,000 Iraqi civilians and 4,000 US service members. It cost the US at least $1.8 trillion dollars. It made Americans less safe by invigorating terrorist recruitment. The majority of Americans do not want war. So how does the US bombing in Iran affect energy security? Reuters reports that brent crude has jumped 18% since June 10, hovering at nearly $80/barrel, as markets brace for further volatility. This is still lower than the 2008 spike to $147 and the 2022 spike to $130 after the Ukraine invasion, but all bets are off if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which their parliament just voted to do. Three‑quarters of the world’s population still depends on fossil-fuel imports that flow through these fragile corridors. Betting markets are predicting a closure at some point this year at just over 50% probability. The largest importer of Iranian crude oil is China, which uses the Strait and must now get involved in the negotiations. New research from Ember makes the case that the path to energy security amidst vulnerable geopolitical chokepoints is through electrification. Deploying EVs, heat pumps, and renewables could slash fossil imports by up to 70%, saving $1.3 trillion/year, and providing a stable, local alternative to volatile fuels. We already know electrification improves climate change and economic resilience. This data reinforces how important it is to peace as well.