Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 195.1 | 13 | 6 | 32.2% | 4.4% | 2.21 | 2.45 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 86.8 | 131.3 | 195.1 | 13 | 6 | 32.2% | 4.4% | 2.21 | 2.48 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 86.8 | 130.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 2.59 | 2.89 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 87.2 | 124.0 | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 2.59 | 2.92 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 87.2 | 123.3 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 195.1 | 19 | 5 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 2.86 | 3.07 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 73.6 | 104.6 | 195.1 | 19 | 5 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 2.86 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 73.6 | 104.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 185.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.3% | 7.8% | 2.43 | 3.14 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 75.3 | 103.3 | 185.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.3% | 7.8% | 2.43 | 3.17 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 75.3 | 102.6 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 130.0 | 11 | 3 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 1.73 | 2.80 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 63.9 | 88.5 | 130.0 | 11 | 3 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 1.73 | 2.83 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 63.9 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Bryan Woo | 186.2 | 15 | 7 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 2.94 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 88.6 | 186.2 | 15 | 7 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 2.94 | 3.50 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 87.9 |
| 7 | Carlos Rodón | 195.1 | 18 | 9 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 3.09 | 3.78 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 69.0 | 84.6 | 195.1 | 18 | 9 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 3.09 | 3.81 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 69.0 | 83.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 172.2 | 12 | 8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 2.97 | 3.64 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 59.8 | 76.2 | 172.2 | 12 | 8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 2.97 | 3.68 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 59.8 | 75.6 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 192.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 3.66 | 3.37 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 49.7 | 73.7 | 192.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 3.66 | 3.41 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 49.7 | 73.0 |
| 10 | Trevor Rogers | 109.2 | 9 | 3 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 1.81 | 2.82 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 52.1 | 72.7 | 109.2 | 9 | 3 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 1.81 | 2.85 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 52.1 | 72.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 195.1 | 13 | 6 | 32.2% | 4.4% | 2.21 | 2.45 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 86.8 | 131.3 | 195.1 | 13 | 6 | 32.2% | 4.4% | 2.21 | 2.48 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 86.8 | 130.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 2.59 | 2.89 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 87.2 | 124.0 | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 2.59 | 2.92 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 87.2 | 123.3 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 195.1 | 19 | 5 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 2.86 | 3.07 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 73.6 | 104.6 | 195.1 | 19 | 5 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 2.86 | 3.10 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 73.6 | 104.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 185.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.3% | 7.8% | 2.43 | 3.14 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 75.3 | 103.3 | 185.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.3% | 7.8% | 2.43 | 3.17 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 75.3 | 102.6 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 130.0 | 11 | 3 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 1.73 | 2.80 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 63.9 | 88.5 | 130.0 | 11 | 3 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 1.73 | 2.83 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 63.9 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Bryan Woo | 186.2 | 15 | 7 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 2.94 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 88.6 | 186.2 | 15 | 7 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 2.94 | 3.50 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 87.9 |
| 7 | Carlos Rodón | 195.1 | 18 | 9 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 3.09 | 3.78 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 69.0 | 84.6 | 195.1 | 18 | 9 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 3.09 | 3.81 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 69.0 | 83.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 172.2 | 12 | 8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 2.97 | 3.64 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 59.8 | 76.2 | 172.2 | 12 | 8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 2.97 | 3.68 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 59.8 | 75.6 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 192.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 3.66 | 3.37 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 49.7 | 73.7 | 192.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 3.66 | 3.41 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 49.7 | 73.0 |
| 10 | Trevor Rogers | 109.2 | 9 | 3 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 1.81 | 2.82 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 52.1 | 72.7 | 109.2 | 9 | 3 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 1.81 | 2.85 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 52.1 | 72.3 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 187.2 | 10 | 10 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 1.97 | 2.36 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 84.4 | 129.0 | 187.2 | 10 | 10 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 1.97 | 2.39 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 84.4 | 128.4 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 202.0 | 13 | 5 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 2.50 | 2.55 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 79.2 | 122.9 | 202.0 | 13 | 5 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 2.50 | 2.58 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 79.2 | 122.2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 207.0 | 15 | 11 | 26.2% | 5.4% | 3.22 | 2.60 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 66.9 | 110.5 | 207.0 | 15 | 11 | 26.2% | 5.4% | 3.22 | 2.64 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 66.9 | 109.8 |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 173.2 | 12 | 8 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 | 2.94 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 70.9 | 101.0 | 173.2 | 12 | 8 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 | 2.97 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 70.9 | 100.4 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 176.2 | 17 | 6 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 2.70 | 3.64 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 72.7 | 89.5 | 176.2 | 17 | 6 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 2.70 | 3.68 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 72.7 | 88.9 |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | 181.2 | 13 | 5 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 2.87 | 3.49 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 85.2 | 181.2 | 13 | 5 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 2.87 | 3.52 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 84.5 |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 3.00 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 84.3 | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 83.7 |
| 8 | Jesús Luzardo | 183.2 | 15 | 7 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 3.92 | 2.90 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 48.4 | 81.2 | 183.2 | 15 | 7 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 3.92 | 2.93 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 48.4 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 125.2 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 2.58 | 2.67 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 50.3 | 75.8 | 125.2 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 2.58 | 2.70 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 50.3 | 75.4 |
| 10 | Ranger Suárez | 157.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.20 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 49.8 | 72.3 | 157.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.20 | 3.24 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 49.8 | 71.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 187.2 | 10 | 10 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 1.97 | 2.36 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 84.4 | 129.0 | 187.2 | 10 | 10 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 1.97 | 2.39 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 84.4 | 128.4 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 202.0 | 13 | 5 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 2.50 | 2.55 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 79.2 | 122.9 | 202.0 | 13 | 5 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 2.50 | 2.58 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 79.2 | 122.2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 207.0 | 15 | 11 | 26.2% | 5.4% | 3.22 | 2.60 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 66.9 | 110.5 | 207.0 | 15 | 11 | 26.2% | 5.4% | 3.22 | 2.64 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 66.9 | 109.8 |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 173.2 | 12 | 8 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 | 2.94 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 70.9 | 101.0 | 173.2 | 12 | 8 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 | 2.97 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 70.9 | 100.4 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 176.2 | 17 | 6 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 2.70 | 3.64 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 72.7 | 89.5 | 176.2 | 17 | 6 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 2.70 | 3.68 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 72.7 | 88.9 |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | 181.2 | 13 | 5 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 2.87 | 3.49 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 85.2 | 181.2 | 13 | 5 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 2.87 | 3.52 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 84.5 |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 3.00 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 84.3 | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 83.7 |
| 8 | Jesús Luzardo | 183.2 | 15 | 7 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 3.92 | 2.90 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 48.4 | 81.2 | 183.2 | 15 | 7 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 3.92 | 2.93 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 48.4 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 125.2 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 2.58 | 2.67 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 50.3 | 75.8 | 125.2 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 2.58 | 2.70 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 50.3 | 75.4 |
| 10 | Ranger Suárez | 157.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.20 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 49.8 | 72.3 | 157.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.20 | 3.24 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 49.8 | 71.7 |
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