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What Data and DICE Tell Me About the Game Industry’s Future The energy at DICE this year was definitely more positive than last year, and I believe that was very real. But in the structure of that optimism, I see a growing acceptance that while big games and big companies will always exist, the industry is shifting in ways that will make it look very different in the years ahead. More games, title stickiness (at the top), and challenges in discoverability and influencer-driven growth test games in finding players more than ever. Headcount and resources are often still structured for a AAA and retail world, even as the industry moves away from that model. AAA output agility is relatively similar, yet games are judged faster and more harshly than ever as costs grow. Audiences react in a more binary way than in the past, making risk-taking harder. At the same time, AI tools are everywhere for every imaginable function. While the surface explanation is that these will only augment capability, I find it hard to believe that some of these tools will not also impact headcount. Many are talking about headcount shifting from the West in an Eastbound direction. More studios are trying to reconstitute, looking for co-development or work-for-hire projects. Many platforms are pushing shorter, lighter gameplay experiences – either mimicking mobile successes or taking a Roblox-like approach. For those still making AAA games, existing IPs seem to get priority for roadmaps, with studios valuing safety and predictability. When you put this all together, it paints a picture of an industry where bigger AAA titles from major studios become more of a franchise-based treat. Lower-cost experiences – some game depth lighter, some not – will grow, with headcount location seeing more shift due to cost. None of this is total, and all of it is quite gradual, but even as the industry recovers, where opportunities exist could be quite different both geographically and functionally. The 10,000 layoffs I forecast this year are part of that transition, and it will take time for these full effects to work through the system. A career in games is not irrational. But, like film or animation, we must accept that it is harder to achieve. A steady-state 20% chance of people landing a job in games within 12 months is realistic and that is my being upbeat and seeing recovery. We need to be honest and this is not about passion, effort, or fairness. The sooner we accept this, the sooner people can make informed decisions about their futures. I particularly believe those guiding folks at universities or in early-career stages need to be more sober and honest. Many who counted on games work will need to retool, shift skills, or relocate – outside of games – to make a living. I have always known my dream is games, but if I lost my job, I would flex into anything to survive. This is the reality we need to prepare for, and I still do not believe many have fully calibrated for it.